建信期货棉花日报-20250916

Report Overview - Report Date: September 16, 2025 [2] - Report Industry: Cotton [1] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - Zhengzhou cotton is in a range - bound adjustment in the short term. The short - term macro influence is strengthening. The overseas market is oscillating weakly, while the domestic market has a slight improvement in demand and some support from rigid demand, but it is also affected by factors such as new cotton picking and the wait - and - see attitude of ginners [7][8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: Zhengzhou cotton oscillated and adjusted. The spot price of 328 - grade cotton was 15,249 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The sales basis of cotton in different regions was reported. The cotton yarn market was generally weak, the cotton cloth market demand was weak, and the home textile market had increased sales but poor order continuity [7] - Macro and Overseas Market: Sino - US economic and trade talks were held in Spain, and the Fed will announce its interest rate decision this week. The USDA September supply - demand report was slightly bearish. The weekly export data of US cotton weakened, and the CFTC fund net long position remained low, with the outer market oscillating weakly [8] - Domestic Market: Some areas have started manual picking, and mechanical picking will start next week. As of September 11, the national new cotton picking progress was 0.3%, with a slight year - on - year increase. Ginners are waiting for price guidance. The demand side has a slight destocking of finished products, and the downstream weaving mills' operation rate has a seasonal increase, with rigid demand support [8] 3.2 Industry News - In August 2025, China's clothing, footwear, and knitted textile revenue was 104.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.1%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative revenue was 940 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.9% - As of September 11, the inventory of ICE's deliverable No. 2 cotton futures contract remained at 15,474 bales. As of September 9, 2025, the net long position ratio of ICE cotton futures funds was - 27.05%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.49 percentage points [9] 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents various data charts, including China's cotton price index, cotton spot and futures prices, basis changes, spreads, cotton commercial and industrial inventories, and exchange rate data [16][20][26]