建信期货工业硅日报-20250916

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The imbalance between supply and demand of industrial silicon has deepened. The resumption of production in the southwest and northern production areas has increased the weekly output to 95,500 tons, and the monthly output is expected to reach 420,000 tons. The demand for polysilicon is optimistically estimated at 145,000 tons, organic silicon at 120,000 tons, and export and alloy demand at 110,000 tons, resulting in a supply - demand gap of 45,000 tons. There is no inventory - reduction drive in the market. Despite fewer industrial policies for industrial silicon compared to polysilicon, the anti - involution policy has been set. The situation of "weak reality + strong policy expectation" makes funds more sensitive to policy drivers. The sharp rise in raw material prices drives the intraday price up, but the short - term futures price runs cautiously and strongly under the premium [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - The price of industrial silicon futures fluctuated. The closing price of Si2511 was 8,800 yuan/ton, with a gain of 0.86%. The trading volume was 498,210 lots, and the open interest was 290,948 lots, with a net increase of 12,960 lots [4]. 3.2 Spot Price - The price of 553 - grade industrial silicon in Sichuan was 8,800 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan was 8,550 yuan/ton. The price of 421 - grade industrial silicon in Inner Mongolia was 9,400 yuan/ton, in Xinjiang was 9,300 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan was 9,600 yuan/ton [4]. 3.3 Market News - On September 15th, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 49,905 lots, a net decrease of 93 lots from the previous trading day [5]. - The relevant departments are actively promoting industry self - regulation and capacity governance in key industries. In August, the year - on - year decline in ex - factory prices of industries such as coal, steel, new energy vehicles, and photovoltaics narrowed, which is beneficial for prices to return to a reasonable range [5]. - The prices of main products in the industrial chain remained stable. The transaction price range of polysilicon n - type re - feedstock was 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 52,000 yuan/ton. Last week, the domestic DMC market price was stable with a slight upward trend, and the average market price of organic silicon DMC was 10,730 yuan/ton, a 0.28% increase from the previous week [5].