建信期货豆粕日报-20250916

General Information - Reported industry: Bean meal [1] - Report date: September 16, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team, including Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Domestic Bean Meal Contracts: The contract prices of domestic bean meal decreased. For example, the closing price of Bean Meal 2601 was 3042, down 45 or -1.46% from the previous settlement; Bean Meal 2509 closed at 2919, down 104 or -3.44%; and Bean Meal 2511 closed at 3013, down 44 or -1.44%. [6] - Foreign Market: The US soybean futures contract fluctuated, with the main contract at 1040 cents. The USDA's September monthly supply - demand report had a slight negative impact, but the market reaction was limited. The market is focused on the China - US economic and trade consultations in Spain this week, which may affect the export of CBOT soybeans and the supply of domestic bean meal. [7] Operation Suggestions - In the short term, due to the poor USDA September report and potential trade changes, there is a strong sentiment among bulls to leave the market and wait. The market is expected to be in low - level oscillation. If there is no new news from the consultations this week, the futures may rebound, but the pressure on spot supply will persist in the short and medium term. In the long term, the import cost is expected to rise. [7] 2. Industry News - USDA Report: In September, the expected soybean production in the US for the 2025/2026 season was 4.301 billion bushels, slightly higher than the market expectation of 4.271 billion bushels; the expected ending inventory was 300 million bushels, up from the previous 290 million bushels. [7][10] - Agricultural Rural Ministry Report: In September, it was estimated that China's soybean imports in the 2024/2025 season would be 104 million tons, an increase of 5.76 million tons from the previous estimate, mainly due to improved oil - mill crushing profits. The soybean crushing volume was also adjusted upwards to 98.9 million tons. The supply - demand forecast for the 2025/2026 season remained unchanged from the previous month. [10] - USDA System Upgrade: The US Department of Agriculture plans to launch an upgraded system for its export net sales report on October 23, and the first weekly sales report using the new system will be released on October 30. [11] 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple figures related to bean meal, including the ex - factory price of bean meal, the basis of the Bean Meal 01 contract, the spread between Bean Meal 1 - 5, the spread between Bean Meal 5 - 9, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate. [12]