建信期货油脂日报-20250916

Report Overview - Reported Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Date: September 16, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - East China Third - Grade Rapeseed Oil: From September to October, the price is OI2601 + 220; from November to December, it is OI2601 + 230. - East China First - Grade Rapeseed Oil: In September, the price is OI2601 + 300; in October, it is OI2601 + 320. - East China First - Grade Soybean Oil: The spot price is Y2601 + 150, in October it is Y2601 + 160, from October to January it is Y2601 + 190, from February to May it is Y2601 + 130, and from April to July it is Y2605 + 200. - East China 24 - Degree Palm Oil: In September, the basis is P2601 - 50, in October it is P2601 + 0, and from October to November it is P2601 + 50. [7] Oil and Fat Comments - The market is dominated by news such as China - Canada and China - US negotiations, showing a high - level volatile trend. - Soybean Oil: Short - term inventory is at a high level with sufficient supply, but there are concerns about long - term soybean supply, and the cost side provides strong support, so there is limited room for price decline. - Rapeseed Oil: Affected by domestic tariff policies, the supply of domestic rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal is expected to decrease significantly. The supply is sufficient before the end of the year based on current inventory and ship purchases, and the long - term situation depends on policies. The market trend is tangled with insufficient driving force. - Palm Oil: The production in the palm oil - producing areas may still increase in the third quarter, peaking in September - October and then declining. The high - frequency export data in early September is poor, and the price lacks short - term upward momentum. - Industry Policy: Indonesia may first increase the mandatory palm oil blending ratio in biodiesel to 45% (B45) and then to B50. - Operation Suggestion: For the three major oils, the strategy is mainly to buy low and go long on a single - side basis. [8] 2. Industry News - Malaysian Palm Oil Production: From September 1 - 10, the production decreased by 3.17% month - on - month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield per unit area down 2.7% and the oil extraction rate (OER) down 0.09% [9]. - Malaysian Palm Oil Exports (ITS): From September 1 - 10, the export volume was 476,610 tons, a 1.2% decrease compared to August 1 - 10. Exports to China were 0.8 million tons, higher than 0.1 million tons in the same period last month [9]. - Malaysian Palm Oil Exports (SGS): From September 1 - 10, the export volume was 244,940 tons, a 27.8% decrease compared to August 1 - 10. Exports to China were 0.83 million tons, a decrease of 0.57 million tons from the previous week [9][10]. - Policy News: Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng led a delegation to Spain to hold talks with the US from September 14 - 17, discussing issues such as US unilateral tariff measures, abuse of export controls, and TikTok. Indonesia may first implement a B45 transition plan before the B50 biodiesel policy, reflecting the government's caution and flexibility in promoting renewable energy use and expanding domestic palm oil demand [15]. 3. Data Overview The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot prices of East China third - grade rapeseed oil, East China fourth - grade soybean oil, South China 24 - degree palm oil, and the basis changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, as well as price spreads and exchange rates [13][14][16]