芳烃橡胶早报-20250916

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For PTA, as the device restarts, the de - stocking slows down. With no unexpected performance from polyester and new production in the future, the long - term inventory build - up is expected. However, the processing fee has reached a very low level for a long time, and with the gradual return of PX supply, attention should be paid to the opportunity to expand the processing fee under potential additional maintenance [2]. - For MEG, new devices are put into operation earlier than expected, and the valuation is significantly compressed. With the subsequent increase in arrivals and high supply expectations in the long - term, the port may start to gradually accumulate inventory, but the current inventory is still not high, and the valuation may be slowly compressed. Attention should be paid to the cost support of coal - based production [2]. - For polyester staple fiber, the start - up rate is expected to remain high due to good spot benefits, but the inventory pressure is limited, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate [2]. - For natural rubber and 20 - number rubber, the national explicit inventory is stable and at a relatively low level, and the price of Thai cup rubber is stable with rainfall affecting tapping. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [2]. 3. Summary by Product PTA - Price and Margin Changes: From September 9 to September 15, the PTA spot price decreased by 50, the processing fee was at a low level, and the basis was weak. The PTA balance load increased by 0.4, while other indicators such as PTA load remained unchanged [2]. - Market Outlook: Near - term TA maintenance is over, the start - up rate has increased, polyester load has slightly increased, and inventory has remained stable. With the restart of devices, the de - stocking of TA will slow down, and long - term inventory build - up is expected. But due to the extremely low and long - lasting processing fee and the return of PX supply, potential additional maintenance may provide opportunities to expand the processing fee [2]. MEG - Price and Margin Changes: From September 9 to September 15, the prices of Northeast Asian ethylene, MEG, and related indicators remained unchanged. The MEG coal - based profit decreased, and the cash flow (ethylene) was negative and decreased [2]. - Market Outlook: Near - term domestic oil - based production of EG remained stable, coal - based start - up slightly increased, and the overall load increased. With the restart of overseas maintenance and an increase in arrivals, port inventory slightly accumulated. New devices are put into operation earlier than expected, and with high supply expectations in the long - term, port inventory may gradually accumulate, but the current inventory is not high, and attention should be paid to the coal - based cost support [2]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Price and Margin Changes: From September 9 to September 15, the prices of various types of polyester staple fiber remained stable. The short - fiber profit and pure - polyester yarn profit had some fluctuations, and the cotton - polyester staple fiber and viscose - polyester staple fiber spreads also changed slightly [2]. - Market Outlook: Near - term start - up rates of some enterprises increased, the start - up rate reached 94.4%, sales improved, and inventory decreased slightly. On the demand side, the start - up rate of polyester yarn remained stable, raw material inventory decreased, and finished - product inventory decreased. In the future, the start - up rate of polyester yarn may slow down due to high finished - product inventory, while the start - up rate of short - fiber is expected to remain high due to good spot benefits, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate [2]. Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber - Price Changes: From September 9 to September 15, the prices of various types of natural rubber and 20 - number rubber had certain fluctuations. The weekly changes showed a general downward trend, while the daily changes on September 15 were mostly 0, except for some indicators such as RU and NR futures prices [2]. - Market Outlook: The national explicit inventory is stable and at a relatively low level, and the price of Thai cup rubber is stable with rainfall affecting tapping. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [2]. Styrene - Price and Margin Changes: From September 9 to September 15, the prices of raw materials such as ethylene and pure benzene had some fluctuations, and the prices of styrene and related products also changed. The domestic profit of styrene remained at a loss, and the profits of EPS, PS, and ABS also had certain fluctuations [2][5].