农产品早报-20250916

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - Corn: In the short - term, new - season corn is about to be listed, demand from enterprises for old corn is decreasing, and prices are weak. But due to low inventory levels, the decline is expected to be small, maintaining a weak oscillation. In the long - term, with increased production and lower costs, prices are expected to decline until consumption improves or there is reluctance to sell in production areas [3] - Starch: In the short - term, as the cost of purchasing grain decreases, the industry is expected to lower the price of starch to reduce inventory. In the long - term, high inventory and expected lower raw material costs lead to a bearish view on starch prices [3] - Sugar: Internationally, Brazil is in the peak crushing season, pressuring international sugar prices. There is uncertainty about future production. Domestically, it follows the trend of raw sugar, with increasing imported sugar and downward - adjusted processed sugar prices, creating pressure on the market [6] - Cotton: The market has entered an oscillation phase, waiting for demand verification. If there are no major macro - risks, the April low may be the long - term bottom, and the downward space for cotton prices is limited. Attention should be paid to changes in demand [9] - Eggs: In August, due to sufficient inventory in food factories and reduced demand, egg prices declined. Since September, with school openings and holiday preparations, prices have rebounded, but the rebound is restricted by high cold - storage egg inventory, and the progress of culling laying hens has slowed down [13] - Apples: The new - season apple harvest is approaching. The national production may not differ much from last year. Consumption is in the off - season, and the market share is being squeezed by seasonal fruits. Attention should be paid to the final production [17] - Pigs: The market is in a range - bound oscillation. There are policy expectations for a production capacity inflection point next year and seasonal support factors this year, but mid - term supply pressure remains due to insufficient production capacity reduction. In September, there is large potential supply pressure, and the market is waiting for verification of spot prices [17] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - Price Data: From 2025/09/09 to 2025/09/15, prices in some regions changed. For example, the price in潍坊 decreased by 6 yuan, and the price in蛇口 decreased by 10 yuan. The basis increased by 30, and the import profit decreased by 51 [2] - Market Analysis: Short - term price is weak due to approaching new - season supply and reduced demand. Long - term price is pressured by increased production and lower costs [3] Sugar - Price Data: From 2025/09/09 to 2025/09/15, the basis decreased by 9, and the import profit decreased by 56. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 280 [6] - Market Analysis: International supply pressure from Brazil affects prices. Domestically, imported sugar arrival and price adjustment of processed sugar create market pressure [6] Cotton/Cotton Yarn - Price Data: From 2025/09/09 to 2025/09/15, the price of 3128 cotton increased by 55 yuan, and the number of warehouse receipts + forecasts decreased by 116. The 32S spinning profit decreased by 58 [9] - Market Analysis: The market is in an oscillation phase, and the downward space is limited if there are no major macro - risks. Attention should be paid to demand changes [9] Eggs - Price Data: From 2025/09/09 to 2025/09/15, prices in major production areas increased, with the largest increase of 0.22 yuan in Hubei. The basis increased by 149 [13] - Market Analysis: August price decline was due to demand reduction, and September price rebound was affected by seasonal factors but restricted by high inventory [13] Apples - Price Data: From 2025/09/09 to 2025/09/15, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained stable. The national inventory increased by 25, and the Shandong inventory increased by 32 [16][17] - Market Analysis: New - season production may be similar to last year. Consumption is in the off - season, and the market share is squeezed by seasonal fruits [17] Pigs - Price Data: From 2025/09/09 to 2025/09/15, prices in major production areas decreased, with the largest decrease of 0.30 yuan in Jiangsu Nantong. The basis decreased by 170 [17] - Market Analysis: The market is in a range - bound oscillation, with mid - term supply pressure and waiting for spot price verification [17]