甲醇聚烯烃早报-20250916

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - Methanol: The market is driven by the logic of port pressure being transmitted to the inland. Although there is seasonal stocking demand and new device stocking increment in the inland later, the port will continuously cause reverse flow impact. Currently, the price is benchmarked against the inland price, and the inland's actions are crucial. Xingxing is expected to start operation in early September, but inventory is still accumulating. Reverse flow can relieve port pressure but will affect inland valuation. With average valuation, inventory, and weak drivers, it's necessary to wait before bottom - fishing, considering import variables such as India's purchase of Iranian methanol and unplanned maintenance [2]. - Plastic (Polyethylene): The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is neutral year - on - year. Upstream and coal - chemical industries are destocking, while social inventory remains flat. Downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are also neutral. The overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. The overseas markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. The import profit is around - 200 with no further increase for now. The price of non - standard HD injection molding is stable, and other price differences are fluctuating, with LD weakening. The maintenance in September is the same as the previous month, and the domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and US quotes. The pressure from new devices in 2025 is significant, and the commissioning of new devices should be monitored [6]. - Polypropylene: The upstream and mid - stream of polypropylene are destocking. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, the non - standard price difference is neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been good this year. The non - standard price difference is neutral, and the markets in Europe and America are stable. The PDH profit is around - 400, propylene is fluctuating, and the powder production start - up rate is stable. The拉丝 production scheduling is neutral. The subsequent supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. The current downstream orders are average, and the raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the pressure on the 01 contract is expected to be moderately excessive. If exports continue to increase or there are many PDH device maintenance, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [7]. - PVC: The basis remains at 01 - 270, and the factory - pickup basis is - 480. The downstream start - up rate is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. The inventory of the middle and upper reaches is continuously accumulating. The summer seasonal maintenance of Northwest devices has a load center between the spring maintenance and the high production in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the commissioning and export sustainability. The recent near - end export orders have slightly declined. The coal sentiment is positive, the cost of semi - coke is stable, and the profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC maintenance. The FOB counter - offer for caustic soda exports is 380. Attention should be paid to whether subsequent export orders can support high - price caustic soda. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, the cost is stable, the downstream performance is average, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and start - up rates [7]. 3. Data Summaries Methanol | Date |动力煤期货|江苏现货|华南现货|鲁南折盘面|西南折盘面|河北折盘面|西北折盘面|CFR中国|CFR东南亚|进口利润|主力基差|盘面MTO利润| | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/09/09 | 801 | 2285 | 2273 | 2560 | 2520 | 2495 | 2698 | 263 | 323 | 14 | - 125 | - 1295 | | 2025/09/10 | 801 | 2302 | 2290 | 2590 | 2520 | 2565 | 2728 | 266 | 326 | - 3 | - 125 | - 1295 | | 2025/09/11 | 801 | 2292 | 2280 | 2590 | 2520 | 2565 | 2723 | 263 | 326 | 13 | - 110 | - 1295 | | 2025/09/12 | 801 | 2290 | 2275 | 2585 | 2520 | 2565 | 2723 | 263 | 326 | 13 | - 95 | - 1295 | | 2025/09/15 | 801 | 2295 | 2290 | 2580 | 2520 | 2565 | 2723 | 263 | 326 | 13 | - 100 | - 1295 | |日度变化| 0 | 5 | 15 | - 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - 5 | 0 | [2] Plastic (Polyethylene) | Date |东北亚乙烯|华北LL|华东LL|华东LD|华东HD|LL美金|LL美湾|进口利润|主力期货|基差|两油库存|仓单| | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/09/09 | 840 | 7150 | 7275 | 9575 | 7400 | 855 | 840 | - 175 | 7229 | - 80 | 69 | 8411 | | 2025/09/10 | 840 | 7150 | 7275 | 9575 | 7400 | 840 | 840 | - 44 | 7226 | - 80 | 68 | 9298 | | 2025/09/11 | 840 | 7130 | 7275 | 9575 | 7400 | 840 | 840 | - 41 | 7209 | - 80 | 66 | 11993 | | 2025/09/12 | 850 | 7100 | 7240 | 9525 | 7400 | 840 | 840 | - 41 | 7169 | - 60 | 66 | 12525 | | 2025/09/15 | 850 | 7140 | 7240 | 9525 | 7400 | 840 | 840 | - 41 | 7232 | - 80 | 66 | 12736 | |日度变化| 0 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 63 | - 20 | 0 | 211 | [6] Polypropylene | Date |山东丙烯|东北亚丙烯|华东PP|华北PP|山东粉料|华东共聚|PP美金|PP美湾|出口利润|主力期货|基差|两油库存|仓单| | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/09/09 | 6600 | 760 | 6840 | 6883 | 6780 | 7114 | 845 | 980 | - 15 | 6949 | - 110 | 69 | 13813 | | 2025/09/10 | 6650 | 760 | 6850 | 6883 | 6780 | 7114 | 845 | 947 | - 20 | 6948 | - 100 | 68 | 13749 | | 2025/09/11 | 6680 | 765 | 6840 | 6870 | 6780 | 7114 | 845 | 947 | - 19 | 6939 | - 110 | 66 | 13749 | | 2025/09/12 | 6680 | 770 | 6805 | 6865 | 6750 | 7078 | 840 | 947 | - 18 | 6913 | - 100 | 66 | 13706 | | 2025/09/15 | 6580 | 770 | 6815 | 6863 | 6770 | 7078 | 840 | 947 | - 18 | 6966 | - 120 | 66 | 13706 | |日度变化| - 100 | 0 | 10 | - 2 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 53 | - 20 | 0 | 0 | [7] PVC | Date |西北电石|山东烧碱|电石法 - 华东|乙烯法 - 华东|电石法 - 华南|电石法 - 西北|进口美金价（CFR中国）|出口利润|西北综合利润|华北综合利润|基差(高端交割品)| | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/09/09 | 2400 | 897 | 4720 | 5500 | 5450 | 4450 | 700 | 534 | 356 | - 244 | - 160 | | 2025/09/10 | 2400 | 897 | 4740 | 5500 | 5450 | 4450 | 700 | 408 | 356 | - 244 | - 160 | | 2025/09/11 | 2400 | 892 | 4750 | 5500 | 5450 | 4450 | 700 | 409 | 356 | - 244 | - 150 | | 2025/09/12 | 2400 | 890 | 4750 | 5500 | 5450 | 4450 | 700 | 409 | 356 | - 244 | - 150 | | 2025/09/15 | 2400 | 890 | 4750 | 5500 | 5450 | 4450 | 700 | 409 | 356 | - 244 | - 150 | |日度变化| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | [7]