Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The PG main contract oscillated strongly, with the cheapest deliverable being Shandong civil gas at 4500. The basis weakened to 51 (-74), the Oct-Nov spread was 49 (-20), and the Nov-Dec spread was 62 (+3). The external market prices rose, the internal-external price difference decreased slightly, and the US-Asia arbitrage window closed. Freight rates continued to rise, and the naphtha crack spread strengthened. The profit of PDH to PP continued to weaken, and the production margins of alkylated oil and MTBE were low. Inbound shipments decreased, external shipments increased slightly, but demand narrowed, leading to an increase in both port and factory inventories. Chemical demand declined, with the PDH operating rate at 70.49% (-2.61). Shandong is the most cost-effective delivery location, with sufficient supply from inbound resources and declining chemical demand. The overall market is expected to remain weak [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog Daily Data - Price Changes: On 2025/09/15, compared with the previous day, the prices of LPG in East China decreased by 3 to 4504, in Shandong increased by 30 to 4530, and in South China decreased by 10 to 4540. The price of etherified C4 increased by 30 to 4790. The lowest delivery location was Shandong. The internal market rose significantly, with the basis at 15 (-66) and the Oct-Nov spread at 51 (+2). FEI and CP were 558 (+8) and 550 (+4) dollars per ton respectively, with the FEI monthly spread unchanged at -4 and the CP monthly spread unchanged at -10. The arrival cost decreased slightly, with the October arrival prices of propane in East China and South China at 4707 and 4652 respectively [1]. Weekly View - Contract Performance: The PG main contract oscillated strongly, with the cheapest deliverable being Shandong civil gas at 4500. The basis weakened to 51 (-74), the Oct-Nov spread was 49 (-20), and the Nov-Dec spread was 62 (+3). There were 13002 (-6) warehouse receipts, with 1 less from Shanghai Yuchi and 5 less from Donghua [1]. - External Market: External market prices rose. The FEI monthly spread increased by 1, the MB monthly spread remained unchanged, and the CP monthly spread decreased by 2.5. The internal-external price difference decreased slightly, with PG-CP at 75 (-3), PG-FEI at 67.6 (-9.3), and FEI-CP at 7.5 (+6.5). The US-Asia arbitrage window closed. The AFEI discount was -6.5 (+3), and the CP South China arrival discount was 43 (+0). Freight rates continued to rise, with the latest rates from the US Gulf to Japan at 155 (+11) and from the Middle East to the Far East at 82 (+7). The FEI-MOPJ was -41.5 (-6.5), and the naphtha crack spread strengthened [1]. - Profit and Demand: The profit of PDH to PP continued to weaken, and the production margins of alkylated oil and MTBE were low. Inbound shipments decreased, external shipments increased slightly, but demand narrowed, leading to an increase in both port and factory inventories. Chemical demand declined, with the PDH operating rate at 70.49% (-2.61). Hebei Haiwei resumed operations, while Donghua Zhangjiagang and Ningbo Jinfa were under maintenance and shut down, and Binhuaxin Material reduced its load. The operating rates of alkylation and MTBE both decreased [1]. - Market Outlook: Shandong is the most cost-effective delivery location, with sufficient supply from inbound resources and declining chemical demand. The overall market is expected to remain weak [1].
LPG早报-20250916
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-09-16 02:02