广发早知道：汇总版-20250916

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex and diverse trend. In the financial derivatives market, stock index futures are oscillating and differentiating, with the new - energy sector being structurally strong; treasury bond futures are affected by weak fundamentals and strong risk preferences; precious metals are rising due to concerns about the Fed's independence; and container shipping futures are expected to decline. In the commodity futures market, different metal and agricultural product futures have their own supply - demand and market situation characteristics, and corresponding investment suggestions are given based on these [2][5][8][11]. 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - Stock Index Futures: On Monday, the A - share market showed oscillating differentiation. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.26%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index rose. The new - energy sector was hot, and financial stocks adjusted. Most of the four major stock index futures contracts declined. The base difference of the 09 contracts is rapidly repairing. The market is affected by domestic economic data and overseas news. The operation suggestion is to consider the option double - buying strategy if the volatility continues to decline [2][3][4]. - Treasury Bond Futures: Treasury bond futures closed up across the board, but the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market rose at the end of the session. The weak economic data in August is favorable for the bond market, but the strong risk preference suppresses long - term bonds. The operation suggestion is to wait and see, pay attention to the capital situation and whether incremental credit - easing policies are introduced [5][6][7]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices rose. Before the FOMC meeting, Trump's call for a sharp interest - rate cut and the possible confirmation of a cabinet member as a voting member have increased concerns about the Fed's independence and credibility, weakening the US dollar and boosting the prices of precious metals. The future outlook is that the Fed's policy path may suppress the US dollar index, and the political turmoil in Europe and the US has increased the demand for precious metals as a hedge [8][9][10]. Container Shipping (European Lines) - The spot prices of container shipping continue to decline slowly. The SCFIS European line index and the Shanghai - Europe freight rate have decreased. The global container capacity has increased year - on - year. The futures price fell, and the spot price has a downward impact on the futures. It is expected that the spot will continue to decline slowly, and the futures price will also decline. The operation suggestion is to short the 10 - contract unilaterally or conduct a 12 - 10 spread arbitrage [11][12]. Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The spot price of copper has risen, and the downstream consumption is weak. The 9 - month interest - rate cut is almost certain, which boosts copper prices in the short term. The fundamental situation is "weak reality + stable expectation". The operation suggestion is that the main contract fluctuates between 79500 - 82000 yuan/ton [13][14][16]. - Alumina: The spot price has declined, and the supply pattern is gradually loose. The futures price shows a low - level oscillating trend, presenting a pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand". The operation suggestion is that the main contract fluctuates between 2900 - 3200 yuan/ton, and short positions can be considered in the medium term if the cost support weakens [17][18][20]. - Aluminum: The spot price has declined. The supply has increased slightly year - on - year, and the demand is in the process of transitioning from the off - season to the peak season. The price is expected to oscillate around the peak - season expectation and the actual consumption fulfillment. The operation suggestion is that the main contract fluctuates between 20600 - 21400 yuan/ton [20][21][22]. - Aluminum Alloy: The spot price is stable. The supply is expected to increase slightly in September, and the demand is expected to improve marginally. The cost is strongly supported, and the price is expected to remain high and oscillate. The operation suggestion is that the main contract fluctuates between 20200 - 20800 yuan/ton, and a spread arbitrage strategy can be considered [22][23][24]. - Zinc: The spot price is stable. The supply of zinc ore is loose, and the production of refined zinc is expected to increase. The demand is in the peak season, but the domestic and overseas markets are differentiated. The price is expected to oscillate, and the operation suggestion is that the main contract fluctuates between 21800 - 22800 yuan/ton [25][26][29]. - Tin: The spot price has declined. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to remain high and oscillate. The operation suggestion is that the main contract fluctuates between 265000 - 285000 yuan/ton [30][31][32]. - Nickel: The spot price has risen slightly. The macro - environment is improving, and the supply of refined nickel is at a relatively high level. The demand is stable in some areas and weak in others. The price is expected to be strong and oscillate in a range. The operation suggestion is that the main contract fluctuates between 120000 - 125000 yuan/ton [33][34][35]. - Stainless Steel: The spot price has risen. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is in the peak - season expectation but has not been significantly released. The price is expected to oscillate in a range. The operation suggestion is that the main contract fluctuates between 12800 - 13400 yuan/ton [37][38][39]. - Lithium Carbonate: The spot price is stable. The supply is increasing slightly, and the demand is optimistic. The market is in a tight - balance state. The price is expected to be strong and oscillate. The operation suggestion is that the main contract fluctuates between 70000 - 75000 yuan/ton [40][41][43]. Ferrous Metals - Steel: The spot price has risen. The cost is affected by factors such as coking coal and iron ore. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is in a seasonal decline. The price is expected to rise, and the pressure levels for rebar and hot - rolled coil are 3350 yuan/ton and 3500 yuan/ton respectively [44][46][47]. - Iron Ore: The spot price has declined slightly. The supply has increased, and the demand has increased due to the recovery of iron - water production. The inventory is in a state of slight change. The price is expected to be oscillating and bullish, and the operation suggestion is to go long on the 2601 contract unilaterally and conduct a spread arbitrage of long iron ore and short hot - rolled coil [48][49][50]. - Coking Coal: The futures price has rebounded strongly, while the spot price is oscillating weakly. The supply is gradually recovering, and the demand has increased due to the recovery of iron - water production. The inventory is in a state of medium - level decline. The operation suggestion is to go long on the 2601 contract unilaterally and conduct a spread arbitrage of long coking coal and short coke [51][52][53]. - Coke: The futures price has rebounded strongly, and the second - round price cut by steel mills has been implemented. The supply is increasing, and the demand has support. The inventory is in a state of medium - level increase. The operation suggestion is to go long on the 2601 contract unilaterally and conduct a spread arbitrage of long coking coal and short coke [54][55][57]. Agricultural Products - Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal): The domestic soybean meal spot price has declined. The US soybean supply is strong and the demand is weak. The Brazilian soybean premium is strong, which supports the domestic cost. The domestic soybean meal inventory has risen to a high level. The price of the 01 contract is expected to fluctuate between 3050 - 3150 yuan/ton [58][59][61]. - Pigs: The spot price is oscillating weakly. The breeding - end slaughter has increased, and the demand is slowly recovering. The supply recovery pattern is clear, and the price is expected to continue to bottom - out [62][63].