原油成品油早报-20250916

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Crude Oil and Refined Oil Morning Report [2] - Date: September 16, 2025 [2] - Team: Research Center's Energy and Chemicals Team [2] Group 2: Price Data Crude Oil and Related Products - Price Changes from September 9 - 15, 2025: WTI increased by $0.61 to $63.30, BRENT by $0.45 to $67.44, DUBAI by $0.54 to $70.74 [3] - Other Products: SC increased by 12.80 to 488.10, OMAN decreased by 0.39 to 69.71 [3] Other Oil - Related Products - Price Changes: Japan Naphtha CFR - related data had a 6.70 change in the differential with BRT, Singapore Fuel Oil 380 CST had a - 0.85 change in its differential [3] Group 3: News and Events Conflict - Related - Israel destroyed Gaza's tallest residential building, carried out large - scale night air strikes on Gaza City, and attacked a Hezbollah headquarters in Lebanon [3] - Israel's military launched a ground offensive on Gaza City on Monday, aiming to eliminate Hamas [3] Iran - Related - Iran is pushing the International Atomic Energy Agency to pass a resolution condemning the US - Israeli nuclear facility attack in June [3][5] - Iran's top nuclear official warned of chaos if a related proposal is vetoed [5] Other News - Goldman Sachs said that due to strong supply growth, oil prices may fall further next year, but multiple factors could lead to an earlier rebound [5] Group 4: Regional Fundamentals - US Data (09/05 Week): US crude exports decreased by 113.9万桶/日 to 274.5万桶/日, domestic production increased by 7.2万桶 to 1349.5万桶/日 [5] - Inventory Changes: Commercial crude inventory (ex - SPR) increased by 393.9万桶 to 4.25 billion barrels, SPR inventory increased by 51.4万桶 to 4.052 billion barrels [5] - Domestic China (9/5 - 9/11): Mainland refinery operating rates had minor fluctuations, Shandong refinery operating rates rose slightly, domestic gasoline and diesel production and inventory increased [5] Group 5: Weekly View - Price Movement: Oil prices rose this week, with absolute price fluctuations intensifying due to geopolitical news [5] - Fundamentals: The global oil market is in a state of inventory accumulation, with US EIA commercial crude and refined product inventories rising, and global refinery profits falling [5][6] - Forecast: In the fourth quarter, the oil price central level is expected to fall to $55 - 60/barrel, and the mid - term surplus pattern remains unchanged [6]