建信期货国债日报2025年9月16日-20250916

1. Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: September 16, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Finance Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 2. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 3. Core View - The release of weak economic data on September 15 boosted the bond market, with treasury bond futures closing higher across the board. However, the bond market still lacks a breakthrough, and investors may need to be patient and wait for better allocation opportunities. The short - end bonds are more resilient than the long - end bonds under the support of loose liquidity [8][12]. 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Performance: Economic data weakness boosted the bond market, with all treasury bond futures closing higher. The yields of major term interest - bearing bonds in the inter - bank market showed short - term decline and long - term increase, with the medium - and long - term changes around 1bp. The yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 reported 1.8000%, up 1.05bp [8][9]. - Funding Market: The central bank withdrew funds in the open market, and the overall funding situation was stable. There were 3115 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due, and the central bank conducted 2800 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 315 billion yuan. Short - term funding rates mostly rose slightly, and medium - and long - term funds also increased slightly [10]. - Conclusion: The national economic activities in August showed weakness, with consumption slowing down and the decline in the real estate market expanding again, indicating that the foundation for domestic demand recovery is still weak. The necessity for China's monetary policy to follow the Fed's easing in September is not high, and policy may focus on fiscal and credit expansion and real estate support, which will bring disturbances to the bond market. However, the suppression of the stock market on the bond market may ease. The short - end bonds are more resilient under the support of loose funds [11][12]. 4.2 Industry News - Economic Data: In August, fixed - asset investment decreased month - on - month, real estate investment declined year - on - year, consumption growth slowed down, and industrial added value increased year - on - year. From January to August, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 increased by 6% year - on - year, and the M1 - M2 gap narrowed to - 2.8%. The increase in RMB loans and social financing scale was higher than the same period last year [13][14]. - Policy News: The Ministry of Finance stated that the fiscal policy has sufficient room for action. A 500 billion yuan special treasury bond was issued this year, which is expected to leverage about 6 trillion yuan of credit [14]. 4.3 Data Overview - Treasury Bond Futures: Information on the trading data of treasury bond futures on September 15, including settlement prices, opening prices, closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest, is provided. Also, there are details about the inter - period spreads and inter - variety spreads of the main contracts, as well as the trend of the main contracts [6][15][16]. - Money Market: Graphs showing the term structure change and trend of SHIBOR, and the change of inter - bank pledged repurchase weighted interest rates are presented [28][30]. - Derivatives Market: Graphs of Shibor3M interest rate swap fixing curves (mean) and FR007 interest rate swap fixing curves (mean) are provided [33].