Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a volatile trend today. For LLDPE, the market is affected by geopolitical turmoil in the crude oil market, the entry of agricultural film demand into the peak season (but still weaker than in previous years), and a moderately high industrial inventory. For PP, the market is also influenced by geopolitical factors in the crude oil market, improved demand in downstream sectors such as pipes and plastic weaving, and a moderately high industrial inventory [4][7]. - The main driving factors for both LLDPE and PP include cost support due to geopolitical unrest and the gradual entry into the demand peak season. However, the demand is still weaker compared to the same period in previous years [5][8]. - The main logical drivers are cost - demand factors and the promotion of domestic macro - policies, while the main risk points are significant fluctuations in crude oil prices and international policy games [6][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: In August, the official PMI was 49.4, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the Caixin PMI was 50.4, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in manufacturing sentiment. China's exports in August were $321.81 billion, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%, but a decline compared to July. The crude oil price is volatile, and recent geopolitical unrest in the Middle East has occurred. The demand for agricultural films is gradually entering the peak season, but overall demand is still weaker than in previous years, while the demand for other packaging films has rebounded. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7180 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is - 52, with a premium/discount ratio of - 0.7%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - Inventory: The PE comprehensive inventory is 545,000 tons (+35,000 tons), which is bearish [4]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [4]. - Main positions: The net long positions of the LLDPE main contract are increasing, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract is expected to show a volatile trend today [4]. PP Overview - Fundamentals: Similar to LLDPE, in August, manufacturing sentiment improved, exports increased year - on - year but declined compared to July, and the crude oil price was volatile with geopolitical unrest. The downstream demand is gradually entering the peak season, and the demand for pipes and plastic weaving has increased. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6850 (-130), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [7]. - Basis: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is - 116, with a premium/discount ratio of - 1.7%, indicating a bearish signal [7]. - Inventory: The PP comprehensive inventory is 575,000 tons (-8,000 tons), which is bearish [7]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [7]. - Main positions: The net short positions of the PP main contract are decreasing, but still showing a bearish signal [7]. - Expectation: The PP main contract is expected to show a volatile trend today [7]. Market Data - LLDPE: The spot price of the delivery product is 7180 (unchanged), the price of the 01 contract is 7232 (+63), the basis is - 52 (-63), the number of warehouse receipts is 12,736 (+211), the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 545,000 tons (unchanged), and the PE social inventory is 547,000 tons (-14,000 tons) [10]. - PP: The spot price of the delivery product is 6850 (-130), the price of the 01 contract is 6966 (+53), the basis is - 116 (-183), the number of warehouse receipts is 13,706 (unchanged), the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 575,000 tons (unchanged), and the PP social inventory is 295,000 tons (unchanged) [10]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - Polyethylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene have generally shown an upward trend, while the import dependence has gradually decreased. For example, in 2018, the import dependence was 46.3%, and in 2024, it dropped to 32.9% [15]. - Polypropylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene have also increased, and the import dependence has decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 9.5% in 2024 [17].
大越期货聚烯烃早报-20250916
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-09-16 03:13