Group 1: Overall Report Information - The report is a non - rated research on the non - ferrous metals industry, including copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel, stainless steel, lead, tin, industrial silicon, and lithium carbonate [1] Group 2: Copper - This week, copper prices fluctuated widely around 80,000 yuan and broke through on Thursday and Friday. The fundamentals remained resilient, with an increase in imported copper arrivals but no accumulation of domestic social inventories. Downstream开工 decreased, and they were in the stage of consuming finished - product inventories. The domestic spot premium declined slightly, but the rigid purchasing ability was still good. Macroscopically, copper benefited from the global fiscal and monetary double - easing, and the overseas interest - rate cut expectation was further priced in. The price is expected to be more likely to rise than fall in the third and fourth quarters. If the short - term positive factors are realized and the price corrects, mid - term long positions can be considered below 79,500 yuan, or put options below 78,000 yuan can be sold [1] Group 3: Aluminum - Supply increased slightly, with aluminum ingot imports providing an increment from January to July. Downstream开工 improved, with stable production schedules for photovoltaic modules, but overseas demand declined significantly. In September, inventory is expected to decline. The short - term fundamentals are okay, and attention should be paid to demand. In a low - inventory pattern, hold positions on dips and pay attention to far - month inter - month and internal - external reverse arbitrage [1] Group 4: Zinc - This week, zinc prices fluctuated narrowly. Domestic TC decreased slightly, while imported TC increased further. In September, due to concentrated maintenance, smelting output decreased slightly month - on - month. Overseas, the quarterly mine - end increment exceeded expectations, and China's zinc ore imports in July exceeded 500,000 tons, the highest in the past three years. Domestic demand was seasonally weak, with limited growth but certain resilience; overseas, European demand was average, and some smelters faced production resistance due to processing fees. Domestic social inventories continued to rise, while overseas LME inventories decreased, mainly flowing to Europe and the United States. The current pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic may further diverge, and the export window is about 1,000 - 1,200 yuan/ton away from opening. In terms of strategy, short - term unilateral positions can be used as a short - side allocation, and internal - external positive arbitrage can continue to be held [2] Group 5: Nickel - The supply of pure nickel remained at a high level. Demand was generally weak, and the premium was stable recently. Domestic inventories increased slightly, and overseas warehouse receipts increased. The short - term fundamentals were weak, and the macro - level anti - involution sentiment rebounded. The Indonesian parade subsided, but it was reported that the Indonesian Forestry Bureau took over part of the world's largest nickel mine, PT Weda Bay Nickel, and follow - up attention is needed [3][4] Group 6: Stainless Steel - On the supply side, steel mills in the north are expected to resume production gradually due to the military parade. Demand was mainly for rigid needs. In terms of cost, the price of nickel iron remained stable, and the price of chrome iron increased slightly. In terms of inventory, the inventories in Xijiao and Foshan remained stable, and warehouse receipts decreased slightly. The fundamentals remained generally weak, and the short - term macro - level followed the anti - involution expectation. The Indonesian parade subsided, and it was reported that the Indonesian Forestry Bureau took over part of the world's largest nickel mine, PT Weda Bay Nickel [6] Group 7: Lead - This week, lead prices rose due to macro - factors. On the supply side, the scrap volume was weak year - on - year; the expansion of recycling plants led to a general shortage of waste batteries, and recycled lead maintained low - level operation under low profits. Demand had no obvious boost, and recyclers sold in small quantities; from April to August, the concentrate operation increased, but the smelting profit led to a supply shortage, and the TC quotation declined in a chaotic manner. On the demand side, the finished - product inventory of batteries was high, the battery operation rate increased this week, but the market was not prosperous in the peak season. The refined - scrap price difference was - 25, and there was an expectation of supply shortage. The LME registered warehouse receipts decreased by 10,000 tons. In September, the market had expectations of a peak season, and orders generally improved, but the destocking intensity of terminal consumption and the purchasing intensity of lead ingots were both weak this week. The willingness of downstream battery factories to receive goods rebounded, but the volume of receiving warehouse receipts was only in the thousands of tons, with limited intensity. The exchange inventory reached a historical high of nearly 70,000 tons. In August, the primary supply was flat, and recycled lead production decreased. In September, both production reduction and resumption of recycled lead occurred, and the supply is expected to be flat. The price rebound improved the recycled lead sales, the refined - scrap price difference was - 25, and the lead ingot spot was at a discount of 20. Demand improved slightly, but the inventory was at a high level, and battery factories controlled production. It is expected that lead prices will fluctuate significantly next week, ranging from 16,800 to 17,200 yuan [7][18] Group 8: Tin - This week, tin prices fluctuated widely. On the supply side, the processing fee at the mine end was at a low level, and some domestic smelters reduced production. Yunnan Tin started maintenance at the beginning of September for about 45 days. Overseas, the import from Wa State in August was less than 200 metal tons, and the short - term raw material supply was tight, and the output may gradually increase after October; African tin mines have medium - and long - term increments but unstable short - term output; Indonesian exports are expected to resume in mid - to late September. On the demand side, the elasticity of solder was limited, the terminal electronic consumption had expectations of a peak season, but the expectation of a decline in photovoltaic growth was strong, and the domestic inventory fluctuated; as Indonesia gradually resumed, the LME inventory rebounded from a low level. At the spot end, there was no obvious improvement in the consumption peak season, and the premium declined slightly. The domestic fundamentals remained in a state of weak supply and demand in the short term. Attention should be paid to the phased mismatch in supply in September and the expectation change of a non - prosperous peak season after the supply resumes in October, as well as the impact of interest - rate cut expectations on non - ferrous metals as a whole. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see; in the long term, hold positions on dips close to the cost line [11] Group 9: Industrial Silicon - This week, the leading enterprises in Xinjiang continued to resume production, with 75 furnaces in operation. Currently, the operation in Sichuan and Yunnan is stable, with a monthly output close to 120,000 tons. Some silicon factories in Xinjiang have plans to increase production later. In September, the balance is in a balanced state, and the increment space in the southwest at the current price is limited. The core of the balance change is the rhythm and amplitude of Hesheng's resumption of production. In the short term, affected by the resumption rhythm in the southwest and Hesheng, the supply and demand will remain in a tight - balance state in September and October. In the long term, the over - capacity of industrial silicon is still large, the operation rate is low, and the price trend is expected to fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle, anchored by the seasonal marginal cost [12][14] Group 10: Lithium Carbonate - This week, lithium carbonate prices fluctuated widely. Affected by the expectation of CATL's resumption of production, the futures price dropped significantly in the middle of the week. On the raw material side, due to the obvious de - stocking of lithium mines in the early stage, miners were not willing to sell at low prices. On the lithium salt side, upstream salt factories also had a sentiment of holding up prices, and most scattered orders were pre - sold. In the spot market, the current basis level strengthened slightly, the large - discount goods decreased compared with the previous period, but the market supply was still abundant, and the quotes of new goods mostly fluctuated around par. The current contradiction is that in the context of an unfinished large - scale capacity expansion cycle and a still - surplus static supply - demand pattern, the resource end faces periodic compliance disturbances. In the context of the current seasonal peak season, the monthly balance after CATL's gradual production reduction has turned to continuous de - stocking, but the de - stocking amplitude is still small compared with the existing inventory level, and the demand performance has a greater impact on the de - stocking amplitude. In the context of a strong "anti - involution" commodity sentiment, the price elasticity after the speculation of supply - side disturbances is high, and the price support is strong before the disturbances materialize [16]
永安期货：有色早报-20250916
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-09-16 03:05