PTA、MEG早报-20250916

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - PTA: The PTA futures fluctuated within a range yesterday, and the spot market had a fair negotiation atmosphere with a weakening spot basis. The market is expected to see a supply return, and the spot basis is gradually declining. The spot price of PTA will mainly fluctuate following the cost side. Attention should be paid to the changes in polyester upstream and downstream devices and terminal demand [5]. - MEG: On Monday, the price center of ethylene glycol adjusted at a low level, and the market trading was average. In the short - term, the supply and demand of ethylene glycol are still tight, and the basis has certain support during the delivery period. However, with the advancement of new device production, the supply and demand in the far - month will turn loose, and the disk performance will be under pressure. Attention should be paid to device changes [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1前日回顾 No relevant content provided. 3.2每日提示 - PTA - Fundamental: Futures fluctuated, spot negotiation okay, basis weakened, 9 - month goods traded at 01 discount of 80, etc. [5] - Basis: Spot price 4610, 01 contract basis - 62, disk premium, bearish [6] - Inventory: PTA factory inventory 3.84 days, decreased by 0.06 days, bullish [6] - Disk: 20 - day moving average down, closing price below 20 - day moving average, bearish [6] - Main position: Net short, short position decreased, bearish [5] - Expectation: Supply return, basis decline, price follows cost, watch device and demand [5] - MEG - Fundamental: Price center adjusted low, trading average, disk fluctuated slightly up at noon [7] - Basis: Spot price 4377, 01 contract basis 89, disk discount, bullish [7] - Inventory: East China inventory 37.24 tons, decreased by 0.73 tons, bullish [7] - Disk: 20 - day moving average down, closing price below 20 - day moving average, bearish [7] - Main position: Net short, short position decreased, bearish [7] - Expectation: Port inventory may rise slightly this week, short - term tight supply - demand, far - month loose, watch device [7] 3.3今日关注 No relevant content provided. 3.4基本面数据 - PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the data of PTA capacity, load, output, import, supply, polyester production, consumption, export, demand, inventory, etc. from January 2024 to December 2025 [11]. - Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It presents the data of EG production, import, supply, polyester production, consumption, port inventory, etc. from January 2024 to December 2025 [12]. - Price - related Charts: Include bottle - chip spot price, production margin, capacity utilization, inventory, PTA and MEG basis, month - to - month spread, spot spread, etc. from 2020 - 2025 [14][28][31] - Inventory Analysis Charts: Show the inventory days of PTA, MEG, PET chips, and polyester fibers in different regions and time periods from 2020 - 2025 [40] - Upstream and Downstream开工率Charts: Display the opening rates of PTA, paraxylene, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms from 2020 - 2025 [51][55] - Profit - related Charts: Illustrate the production margins of PTA, MEG, polyester fibers (short - fiber, DTY, POY, FDY) from 2022 - 2025 [60][61] 3.5利多因素 - The average operating load of polyester devices has further increased to 91.3%, a 1 - percentage - point increase from the previous week [10]. - With the approach of the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, the market's expectation of demand start is slightly reflected [10]. - Yisheng Hainan's 2 - million - ton plant is under maintenance and is expected to restart in November [10]. 3.6利空因素 - The profit margins of all links in the industrial chain continue to be under pressure, and the overall operating atmosphere remains cautious [9].