大越期货沪铜早报-20250916

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The fundamentals of copper are neutral, with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being loosened. In August, the manufacturing PMI rose to 49.4%, showing improved business sentiment. The basis is neutral, with the spot price at 80960 and a basis of 20, indicating a premium over the futures. Inventory data presents a mixed picture, with copper inventories decreasing by 1325 to 152625 tons on September 15 and SHFE copper inventories increasing by 12203 tons to 94054 tons compared to last week. The market is biased towards the long side, as the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, which is trending upwards, and the net long position of the main players is increasing. Given the inventory increase and geopolitical disturbances, and awaiting the consumption guidance in the peak season of September, the copper price is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend as the current long - short contradictions are not prominent [2]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Daily View - Fundamentals are neutral due to smelting production cuts and scrap copper policy changes, along with an improved manufacturing PMI in August [2]. - The basis is neutral with a spot premium over the futures [2]. - Inventory data shows a mixed situation, with a daily decrease and a weekly increase [2]. - The market is bullish based on the price - moving average relationship and the main players' net long position [2]. - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend, pending September's peak - season consumption data [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - The logic involves global policy easing and trade - war escalation, but specific details of利多 and利空 are not elaborated [3]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it is expected to be in a tight balance [21]. - The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows different supply - demand situations from 2018 to 2024, with varying production, import, export, and consumption figures [23]. Other Information - The source of data is Wind [10][14] - The SHFE warehouse receipt inventory and LME inventory are involved in the inventory section, and the bonded - area inventory is rising from a low level [15] - The processing fee is decreasing [17] - CFTC - related content is mentioned, but no details are provided [19]