Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2]. - The supply - demand mismatch pattern in the soda ash industry has not been effectively improved [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily View - Fundamentals: Alkali plant maintenance is less, supply is at a high level; downstream float glass daily melting volume is stable, photovoltaic daily melting volume continues to decline, terminal demand is general, and soda ash factory inventory is at a historically high level for the same period; bearish [2]. - Basis: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,200 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,308 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 108 yuan, and the futures price is at a premium to the spot price; bearish [2]. - Inventory: The national soda ash factory inventory is 1.7975 million tons, a decrease of 1.35% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average; bearish [2][35]. - Disk: The price is running above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward; neutral [2]. - Main position: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing; bearish [2]. - Expectation: The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2]. 2. Influence Factors Summary - Positive factors: The peak maintenance period within the year is approaching, and production is expected to decline [3]. - Negative factors: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production - launch plans this year, with the industry output at a historically high level for the same period; the production of photovoltaic glass, a downstream product of heavy - quality soda ash, has decreased, and the demand for soda ash has weakened; the positive sentiment of macro - policies has subsided [4]. 3. Soda Ash Futures Market | Indicator | Previous Value | Current Value | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract closing price (yuan/ton) | 1,290 | 1,308 | 1.40% | | Heavy - quality soda ash: Shahe low - end price (yuan/ton) | 1,200 | 1,200 | 0.00% | | Main basis (yuan/ton) | - 90 | - 108 | 20.00% | [6] 4. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1,200 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous day [11]. - Production profit: The profit of heavy - quality soda ash using the North China ammonia - soda process is - 96.30 yuan/ton, and that using the East China combined - production process is - 92.50 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash has rebounded from a historically low level [14]. - Operating rate, production capacity and output: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 87.29%. The weekly output of soda ash is 761,100 tons, of which heavy - quality soda ash is 421,700 tons, and the output is at a historical high [17][19]. - Production capacity changes: In 2023, the newly - added production capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned newly - added production capacity is 7.5 million tons, with an actual launch of 1 million tons [20]. 5. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - Sales - to - production ratio: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 103.23% [23]. - Downstream demand: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 160,200 tons, and the operating rate is 76.01% and stable; the price of photovoltaic glass continues to fall. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has cut production, and the in - production daily melting volume continues a significant downward trend [26][32]. 6. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory The national soda ash factory inventory is 1.7975 million tons, a decrease of 1.35% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [35]. 7. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Effective Capacity (10,000 tons) | Output (10,000 tons) | Operating Rate | Import (10,000 tons) | Export (10,000 tons) | Net Import (10,000 tons) | Apparent Supply (10,000 tons) | Total Demand (10,000 tons) | Supply - Demand Difference (10,000 tons) | Capacity Growth Rate | Output Growth Rate | Apparent Supply Growth Rate | Total Demand Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2017 | 3035 | 2715 | 89.46% | 14 | 152 | - 138 | 2577 | 2517 | 60 | 2.20% | 5.10% | 7.40% | 4.60% | | 2018 | 3067 | 2583 | 83.57% | 29 | 138 | - 109 | 2474 | 2523 | - 49 | 1.85% | - 4.86% | - 4.00% | 0.24% | | 2019 | 3247 | 2804 | 86.36% | 19 | 144 | - 125 | 2679 | 2631 | 48 | 5.05% | 8.56% | 8.29% | 4.28% | | 2020 | 3317 | 2757 | 73.40% | 36 | 138 | - 102 | 2655 | 2607 | 48 | 2.16% | - 1.68% | - 0.90% | - 0.91% | | 2021 | 3288 | 2892 | 71.90% | 23 | 73 | - 50 | 2842 | 2764 | 78 | - 0.87% | 4.90% | 7.04% | 6.02% | | 2022 | 3114 | 2944 | 85.26% | 11 | 206 | - 195 | 2749 | 2913 | - 164 | - 5.29% | 1.80% | - 3.27% | 5.39% | | 2023 | 3342 | 3228 | 87.76% | 82 | 144 | - 62 | 3166 | 3155 | 11 | 7.32% | 9.65% | 15.17% | 8.31% | | 2024E | 3930 | 3650 | 78.20% | 42 | 156 | - 114 | 3536 | 3379 | 157 | 17.59% | 13.07% | 11.69% | 7.10% | [36]
大越期货纯碱早报-20250916
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-09-16 03:20