Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The glass market has weak fundamentals, with supply declining to a relatively low level compared to the same period, but terminal demand remaining sluggish and inventory rebounding. It is expected that the glass market will mainly show a weak and volatile trend in the short term [2][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main glass futures contract increased from 1180 yuan/ton to 1207 yuan/ton, a rise of 2.29%. The spot price of Shahe Safety large - board glass remained unchanged at 1072 yuan/ton. The main basis changed from - 108 yuan/ton to - 135 yuan/ton, a change of 25.00% [6]. 3.2 Glass Spot Market The market price of 5mm white glass large - board in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe was 1072 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [11]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - Cost Side: The report mentions glass production profit but does not provide specific data [12][16]. - Supply Side: The number of operating national float glass production lines is 225, with an operating rate of 76.01%, at a historical low for the same period. The daily melting capacity of national float glass is 160,200 tons, at the lowest level in the same period in history and showing signs of stabilization and recovery [22][24]. - Demand Side: In June 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.634 million tons. The real - estate terminal demand is still weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low for the same period. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly digesting the original glass inventory [28][4]. - Inventory: The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 61.583 million weight boxes, a decrease of 2.33% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average [42]. - Supply - Demand Balance Table: The report provides the annual supply - demand balance table of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, showing changes in production, consumption, and other indicators over the years [43]. 3.4 Factors Affecting the Market - Positive Factors: Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, there is an expectation of capacity clearance in the float glass industry [3]. - Negative Factors: The real - estate terminal demand is weak, the capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and the "anti - involution" market sentiment has subsided [4]. 3.5 Main Logic The supply of glass has declined to a relatively low level in the same period, but the terminal demand is weak, and the inventory has rebounded. It is expected that the glass market will mainly show a weak and volatile trend [5].
大越期货玻璃早报-20250916
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-09-16 03:20