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天胶早报-20250916
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-09-16 03:20

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the natural rubber industry is neutral [4][9] Core Viewpoints - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot market is strong, domestic inventories are decreasing, and tire operating rates are at a high level. The market has support at the bottom, and it is advisable to buy on dips [4] Summary by Directory Daily Hints - The fundamental situation of natural rubber is that supply is increasing, the spot is strong, domestic inventories are decreasing, and tire operating rates are at a high level, rated as neutral. The basis is -995 with a spot price of 15,000, rated as bearish. Exchange inventories have decreased both week - on - week and year - on - year, while Qingdao inventories have decreased week - on - week but increased year - on - year, rated as neutral. The price is above the 20 - day line with the 20 - day line trending upwards, rated as bullish. The main positions are net short with short positions decreasing, rated as bearish. The market has support at the bottom, and the strategy is to buy on dips [4] Fundamental Data - Supply and Demand: The downstream consumption is high, and the spot price is resistant to decline, which are positive factors. However, the supply is increasing, and domestic economic indicators are bearish, which are negative factors [6] - Inventory: Exchange inventories have been continuously decreasing recently, and Qingdao area inventories have shown small changes [14][17] - Import: The import volume has rebounded [20] - Downstream Consumption: Automobile production and sales have seasonally declined, tire production reached a new high in the same period but decreased month - on - month, and the tire industry's exports have rebounded [23][26][29][32] Basis - The basis weakened on September 15 [35] Spot Price - The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) increased on September 15 [8] Multi - Empty Factors and Main Risk Points - Positive Factors: High downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [6] - Negative Factors: Increasing supply, bearish domestic economic indicators, and trade frictions [6]