焦煤焦炭早报（2025-9-16）-20250916

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - For coking coal, due to safety accidents, production in some areas is still restricted. Coke prices are weakening, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is average. Although the inventory of coal mines is at a medium - low level, the mainstream coal prices are temporarily stable. With the second round of coke price cuts implemented, downstream demand for coking coal has tightened. It is expected that the coking coal price will run weakly and stably in the short term [2]. - For coke, the cost of coking has continued to improve, and coke enterprises' profits are good, so their production enthusiasm is high. As the raw material arrival situation of downstream steel mills has improved, the procurement demand for coke has decreased, and the second - round price cuts of coke have been fully implemented. It is expected that coke will run weakly and stably in the short term [7]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Daily Views - Coking Coal - Fundamentals: Affected by safety accidents, production in some areas is restricted. Coke prices are weak, downstream procurement is average, and online auction failure rates are high. However, coal mine inventories are at medium - low levels, and mainstream coal prices are stable; bearish [2]. - Basis: The spot price is 1130, and the basis is - 57.5, with the spot at a discount to the futures; bearish [2]. - Inventory: The total sample inventory is 1890.7 million tons, a decrease of 28.1 million tons from last week; bullish [2]. - Disk: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is above the 20 - day line; neutral [3]. - Main Force Position: The main force of coking coal has a net short position, and the short position is decreasing; bearish [3]. - Expectation: Although the molten iron output is at a high level, the second - round price cuts of coke have been implemented, and downstream demand for coking coal has tightened. It is expected that the coking coal price will run weakly and stably in the short term [2]. - Positive Factors: Rising molten iron output and difficult supply increase [5]. - Negative Factors: Slower procurement of raw coal by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [5]. Daily Views - Coke - Fundamentals: The prices of some raw coal continue to fall, coking costs are improving, and coke enterprises' profits are good, so production enthusiasm is high. Steel mills' procurement demand for coke has decreased, and the second - round price cuts of coke have been fully implemented; neutral [7]. - Basis: The spot price is 1580, and the basis is - 108.5, with the spot at a discount to the futures; bearish [7]. - Inventory: The total sample inventory is 864.2 million tons, a decrease of 17.9 million tons from last week; bullish [7]. - Disk: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is above the 20 - day line; neutral [7]. - Main Force Position: The main force of coke has a net short position, and the short position is decreasing; bearish [7]. - Expectation: As the price of coking coal continues to fall, coke supply is increasing, and steel mills' procurement rhythm has slowed down. It is expected that coke will run weakly and stably in the short term [7]. - Positive Factors: Rising molten iron output and increasing blast furnace operating rate [9]. - Negative Factors: Squeezed profit margins of steel mills and partially overdrawn replenishment demand [9]. Price - Coke Price: On September 15, 2025, the prices of some types of coke in ports such as Rizhao Port, Tianjin Port, and Qingdao Port have increased or decreased. For example, the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke from Shanxi in Rizhao Port has increased by 40 in some cases and decreased by 50 in others [10]. - Imported Coking Coal Price: On September 15, 2025, the prices of imported coking coal from Russia and Australia in various ports are different, and some varieties have price increases. For example, the price of 1/3 coking coal GJ in Caofeidian Port has increased by 115 [11]. Inventory - Port Inventory: Coking coal port inventory is 282.1 million tons, a decrease of 10.2 million tons from last week; coke port inventory is 215.1 tons, an increase of 17 tons from last week [21]. - Independent Coking Enterprise Inventory: Independent coking enterprises' coking coal inventory is 844.1 million tons, an increase of 2.9 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 46.5 tons, a decrease of 3.6 tons from last week [26]. - Steel Mill Inventory: Steel mills' coking coal inventory is 803.8 million tons, an increase of 4.3 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 million tons, a decrease of 13.3 million tons from last week [31]. Other Data - Coke Oven Capacity Utilization Rate: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [44]. - Average Profit per Ton of Coke: The average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [48].