大越期货油脂早报-20250916

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for 24/25 is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports increased biodiesel consumption. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian canola in China has led to the leading increase in the canola sector. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable. The easing of Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations affects the market at the macro level [2][3][4]. - The main logic revolves around the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats. The main risk factor is the El Niño weather [5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Views - Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: The MPOB report shows that in May, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month-on-month to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% month-on-month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with the production reduction falling short of expectations. Currently, shipping survey agencies indicate that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [2]. - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,448, with a basis of 72, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [2]. - Inventory: On August 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year-on-year, which is bearish [2]. - Market: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward, which is bullish [2]. - Main Position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased, which is bullish [2]. - Expectation: The soybean oil Y2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,100 - 8,500 [2]. Daily Views - Palm Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [3]. - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 9,400, with a basis of 22, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [3]. - Inventory: On August 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year-on-year, which is bullish [3]. - Market: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward, which is bullish [3]. - Main Position: The main palm oil contract has switched from long to short, which is bearish [3]. - Expectation: The palm oil P2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,200 - 9,600 [3]. Daily Views - Rapeseed Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [4]. - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10,026, with a basis of 126, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [4]. - Inventory: On August 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year-on-year, which is bearish [4]. - Market: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward, which is bullish [4]. - Main Position: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased, which is bearish [4]. - Expectation: The rapeseed oil OI2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,700 - 10,100 [4]. Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - Bullish Factors: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5]. - Bearish Factors: The prices of oils and fats are at relatively high historical levels, the domestic inventory of oils and fats is continuously increasing, the macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of relevant oils and fats is high [5].