Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - side of lithium carbonate showed that last week's production was 19,963 tons, a 2.80% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. The demand - side indicated that the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises increased by 0.72% week - on - week, while that of ternary material sample enterprises decreased by 0.65% week - on - week. - In terms of cost, the cost of purchased spodumene concentrate increased by 1.85% day - on - day, with a production loss of - 3,379 yuan/ton; the cost of purchased lepidolite decreased by 0.48% day - on - day, with a production loss of - 7,008 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end was generally higher than that of the ore end, with negative production income and low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt - lake end was 31,745 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation. - Overall, due to the mismatch between production capacity and demand, resulting in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, the downward trend of the lithium carbonate market is difficult to change. [8][9][12] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Views - Supply and Demand: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 19,963 tons, a 2.80% week - on - week increase. The inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 95,442 tons, a 0.72% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 17,529 tons, a 0.65% week - on - week decrease [8]. - Cost: The cost of purchased spodumene concentrate was 74,770 yuan/ton, a 1.85% day - on - day increase, with a production loss of - 3,379 yuan/ton; the cost of purchased lepidolite was 76,422 yuan/ton, a 0.48% day - on - day decrease, with a production loss of - 7,008 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end was generally higher than that of the ore end, with negative production income. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt - lake end was 31,745 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins [9]. - Fundamentals and Other Indicators: The fundamentals are neutral. On September 15, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 72,450 yuan/ton, and the basis of the November contract was - 230 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The smelter inventory was 36,213 tons, an 8.26% week - on - week decrease, lower than the historical average; the downstream inventory was 58,279 tons, a 5.56% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average; the overall inventory was 138,512 tons, a 1.12% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average. The disk is bearish, and the net short position of the main contract increased [9]. - Expectations: In August 2025, the production of lithium carbonate was 85,240 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 86,730 physical tons, a 1.75% month - on - month increase. The import volume in August was 17,000 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 19,500 physical tons, a 14.71% month - on - month increase. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and the inventory may be reduced [9]. 2. Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - Futures Closing Price and Basis: The futures closing prices of various contracts showed an upward trend, with increases ranging from 1.76% to 2.27%. The basis of various contracts showed a significant decrease, with decreases ranging from 104.90% to 205.48%. The number of registered warrants increased by 0.88% [15]. - Upstream Prices: The price of spodumene (6%) increased by 0.71%, while the prices of lepidolite concentrate, anhydrous iron phosphate, lithium hexafluorophosphate, and various lithium salts remained unchanged [15]. - Positive and Negative Factors: Positive factors include manufacturers' production suspension and reduction plans, a month - on - month decrease in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile, and a decrease in the import volume of spodumene. Negative factors include the continuous high supply of the ore and salt - lake ends with limited decline, and the insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [10][11]. 3. Supply - Side Data - Lithium Ore: The weekly and monthly operating rates of lithium ore showed different trends. The monthly production of lithium ore increased, and the monthly import volume of lithium concentrate increased significantly. The supply of lithium ore from different sources, such as spodumene, lepidolite, and salt - lake, also showed different changes [17]. - Lithium Carbonate: The weekly and monthly operating rates of lithium carbonate production from different sources, such as spodumene, lepidolite, salt - lake, and recycling materials, showed different trends. The monthly production and import volume of lithium carbonate also changed. The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate showed a certain degree of imbalance in different months [29][36]. - Lithium Hydroxide: The weekly capacity utilization rate and monthly operating rate of lithium hydroxide production showed different trends. The monthly production, import, and export volume of lithium hydroxide also changed. The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide showed a certain degree of imbalance in different months [39][42]. 4. Cost and Profit of Lithium Compounds - Cost and Profit of Purchased Spodumene and Lepidolite Concentrates: The cost and profit of purchased spodumene and lepidolite concentrates showed different trends over time. The production cost and profit of lithium carbonate from different raw materials, such as spodumene, lepidolite, and recycling materials, also varied [45]. - Import Profit of Lithium Carbonate and Other Profits: The import profit of lithium carbonate, the profit of purifying industrial - grade lithium carbonate, the profit of carbonizing lithium hydroxide into lithium carbonate, and other profits showed different trends over time [45][47]. 5. Inventory - Lithium Carbonate Inventory: The weekly and monthly inventory of lithium carbonate from different sources, such as smelters, downstream, and others, showed different trends. The overall inventory of lithium carbonate was at a relatively high level [52]. - Lithium Hydroxide Inventory: The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide from different sources, such as smelters and downstream, also showed different trends [52]. 6. Demand - Side Data - Lithium Battery: The price, production, and export volume of lithium batteries showed different trends over time. The demand for lithium batteries from different applications, such as power and energy storage, also changed [56]. - Ternary Precursor: The price, cost, profit, and production of ternary precursors showed different trends over time. The supply - demand balance of ternary precursors showed a certain degree of imbalance in different months [61][64]. - Ternary Material: The price, cost, profit, production, and inventory of ternary materials showed different trends over time [67][69]. - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium: The price, cost, profit, production, export volume, and inventory of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium showed different trends over time [71][74]. - New Energy Vehicle: The production, sales, export volume, and sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles showed different trends over time. The zero - batch ratio and inventory index of new energy vehicles also changed [79][83].
大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20250916
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-09-16 03:25