大越期货PVC期货早报-20250916

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The fundamentals of PVC are bearish, with the basis, inventory, market trend, and main positions all showing bearish signals [6][11]. - The overall supply pressure of PVC has rebounded, domestic demand recovery is sluggish, and the current demand may remain weak [13][14]. - The cost of PVC is weakening, the supply pressure is increasing this week, and production scheduling is expected to increase next week. The overall inventory is at a high level, and the PVC2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 4890 - 4952 [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - The basis on September 15th showed that the spot price was at a discount to the futures price, which is bearish [11]. - Factory inventory and social inventory increased, while the number of days of inventory in production enterprises decreased slightly, which is bearish [11]. - The MA20 of the market trend was downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20, which is bearish [11]. - The main positions were net short, and the short positions decreased, which is bearish [11]. - The positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. The negative factors include the rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand [13]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data 3.2.1 Supply - In August 2025, PVC production was 2.07334 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.43%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 77.13%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide enterprises decreased by 0.68% month - on - month, while that of ethylene enterprises increased by 7.11% month - on - month. Supply pressure increased this week, and production scheduling is expected to increase slightly next week [7]. 3.2.2 Demand - The overall downstream operating rate was 43.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.899 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The operating rates of downstream profiles, pipes, and films showed different trends, with the film and paste resin operating rates higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to rise, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive, but the current demand may remain weak [7]. 3.2.3 Cost - The profit of calcium carbide method was - 420.96 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 5.40% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was - 670.97 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 6.80% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The double - ton spread was 2608.55 yuan/ton, with the profit remaining unchanged month - on - month, lower than the historical average. Production scheduling may be under pressure [8]. 3.3 PVC Market Overview - The report presents yesterday's PVC market overview, including various indicators such as futures closing prices, basis, inventory, and downstream operating rates, and their changes [16][17]. 3.4 PVC Futures Market - The report shows the basis trend, price trend, trading volume, and position changes of PVC futures [19][22][23]. 3.5 PVC Fundamentals 3.5.1 Calcium Carbide Method - It includes the price, cost - profit, operating rate, and inventory of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda, as well as the cost - profit of the chlor - alkali industry and the double - ton spread [28][31][33][36][39]. 3.5.2 Supply Trend - It shows the capacity utilization rates of calcium carbide and ethylene methods, production profit, daily and weekly production, and maintenance volume of PVC [41][43]. 3.5.3 Demand Trend - It includes the sales volume of PVC traders, pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, downstream average operating rate, and the operating rates of different downstream products. It also shows the investment and construction data of the real estate industry and some macro - economic data [45][48][52][54]. 3.5.4 Inventory - It presents the exchange warehouse receipts, factory inventories of calcium carbide and ethylene methods, social inventory, and the number of days of inventory in production enterprises [56][57]. 3.5.5 Ethylene Method - It shows the import volumes of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and price spreads [58][59]. 3.5.6 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - It shows the monthly supply - demand trends of PVC, including import, production, factory inventory, social inventory, demand, and export [61][62].