大越期货：2025-09-16甲醇早报-20250916

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand logic of methanol in China is expected to result in a regional trend this week, with the north stronger than the south overall. Inland areas may see higher prices due to increased olefin demand, while the growth of prices in sales areas is restricted by the back - flow of port goods. Port areas have a strong long - term expectation but are constrained by high inventory. It is predicted that the methanol price will fluctuate this week, with the MA2601 contract oscillating between 2340 - 2400 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Tips - The fundamentals of methanol 2601 show a neutral situation. The supply - demand in different regions varies, with the north potentially stronger. The base - difference indicates that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price, which is bearish. The inventory shows an increase, also bearish. The disk is neutral, the main positions are net long with an increase in long positions, which is bullish. Overall, the price is expected to oscillate [5]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - term Concerns - Bullish factors: Some domestic devices are shut down, such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya. Iranian methanol production is affected by gas shortages and device shutdowns, and there are new production capacities coming online for downstream acetic acid [6]. - Bearish factors: Some previously shut - down devices are resuming production, such as Inner Mongolia Donghua. There will be a concentrated arrival of ships at ports in the second half of the month. Formaldehyde enters the traditional off - season, and the MTBE operating rate has dropped significantly. Coal - based methanol has a certain profit margin and is actively selling goods, and some factories in production areas have accumulated inventory [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - Price data: In the spot market, prices in different regions have different changes, with Jiangsu rising by 0.88% to 2295 yuan/ton, Hebei rising by 3.13% to 2305 yuan/ton, etc. In the futures market, the closing price of the main contract increased by 17 yuan/ton to 2396 yuan/ton. The base - difference decreased by 2 yuan/ton to - 101 yuan/ton, and the import - price difference decreased by 16 yuan/ton to - 82 yuan/ton [8][9][11]. - Operating rate data: The national weighted average operating rate decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%. The operating rates in different regions also showed different degrees of decline, such as Shandong decreasing by 2.39% to 68.71% [8]. - Inventory data: As of September 11, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports was 126.73 million tons, an increase of 12.27 million tons from the previous period. The total available and tradable inventory in coastal areas increased by 8.79 million tons to 89.15 million tons [5]. - Profit data: The profits of different production processes vary. Coal - based methanol profit decreased by 2 yuan/ton to 313 yuan/ton, natural - gas - based methanol profit remained at - 40 yuan/ton, and coke - oven - gas - based methanol profit increased by 327 yuan/ton to 508 yuan/ton [21]. - Downstream product data: The prices of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid remained unchanged. The production profits of downstream products generally decreased, and the operating loads of some products increased slightly [32][36][39][43][48]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - Domestic devices: Many domestic methanol production devices are in maintenance, including those in the northwest, east, southwest, and northeast regions, with different raw materials such as coal, natural gas, and coke - oven gas. The maintenance time and expected losses vary [59]. - Overseas devices: Some Iranian methanol devices have maintenance or production - resumption situations, and devices in other countries such as Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the United States also have different operating states [60]. - Olefin devices: Olefin devices in different regions, including the northwest and east, have different operating conditions, such as normal operation, maintenance, and planned production increases [61].