大越期货菜粕早报-20250916

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Rapeseed meal RM2601 fluctuates within the range of 2460 - 2520. The spot demand for rapeseed meal remains in the peak season in the short term, and the low inventory supports the market. However, after the National Day, the demand will gradually enter the off - season, and there are still uncertainties in the Sino - Canadian trade negotiations. The market is affected by news and oscillates downward in the short term. It is expected to enter a slightly stronger oscillating pattern in the short term, and the follow - up development should be monitored [9]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2601 fluctuates within 2460 - 2520. It is affected by news and oscillates downward in the short term, and is expected to enter a slightly stronger oscillating pattern [9]. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expectation of tight supply in the spot market. The demand side maintains a good expectation. China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and a 75.8% import deposit has been imposed. The final result is still variable. Global rapeseed production has increased this year, mainly due to higher - than - expected production in Canada. The Russia - Ukraine conflict is ongoing, and there is still a possibility of an increase in global geopolitical conflicts, which still supports commodities [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the addition of import deposits; low inventory pressure on oil mills' rapeseed meal. Bearish factors: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed; There is still a small probability of reconciliation in the final result of China's anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports. The current main logic is that the market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - Trading Data: From September 5th to September 15th, the average trading price of soybean meal fluctuated between 3040 - 3065 yuan/ton, and the trading volume fluctuated between 4.9 - 39.05 million tons. The average trading price of rapeseed meal was mainly 2600 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was mostly 0, with a maximum of 0.23 million tons. The average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated between 434 - 465 yuan/ton [13]. - Price Data: From September 5th to September 15th, the price of rapeseed meal futures' main contract 2601 fluctuated between 2504 - 2567 yuan/ton, the price of the far - month contract 2605 fluctuated between 2392 - 2420 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Fujian fluctuated between 2580 - 2620 yuan/ton [15]. - Warehouse Receipt Data: From September 3rd to September 15th, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts fluctuated, with a maximum of 11343 and a minimum of 4831 [17]. 5. Position Data - The main short positions have decreased, and the funds have flowed out [9].