大越期货燃料油早报-20250916

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating [3] Core View - The overnight crude oil fluctuated higher, and fuel oil followed suit. The fundamentals of fuel oil have slightly improved. High - sulfur fuel oil still has some summer consumption support downstream, and the arrival of low - sulfur fuel oil from the West is expected to decrease, which partially supports the price to remain strong. The FU2510 is expected to operate in the range of 2790 - 2830, and the LU2511 is expected to operate in the range of 3380 - 3420 [3] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - The fundamentals of fuel oil: Although the volume of arbitrage cargo from the West received in Singapore in September will decrease by about 300,000 tons month - on - month, the regular export tenders for September shipments will keep the market well - supplied until October. The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market may continue to be supported by regional raw material demand and the final stage of Middle - East summer power - generation demand. However, traders are worried that the increasing supply will put pressure on the market fundamentals in the coming weeks [3] - The basis: The basis of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is 26 yuan/ton, and that of Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil is - 23 yuan/ton, with the spot at par with the futures [3] - Inventory: Singapore's fuel oil inventory in the week of September 10 was 23.039 million barrels, a decrease of 270,000 barrels [3] - The disk: The price is near the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is flat [3] - Main positions: The main position of high - sulfur fuel oil is short, and the short position is decreasing; the main position of low - sulfur fuel oil is long, and the long position is decreasing [3] 2. Long and Short Concerns - Bullish factors: There may be an increase in sanctions against Russia [4] - Bearish factors: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified, and the upstream crude oil price is weak [4] - Market drivers: The supply side is affected by geopolitical risks, and the demand is neutral [4] 3. Fundamental Data - Futures market: The price of the FU main contract futures increased from 2733 to 2787, a rise of 54 or 1.98%. The price of the LU main contract futures increased from 3288 to 3353, a rise of 65 or 1.98%. The FU basis decreased from 164 to 26, a decrease of 138 or 84.03%. The LU basis decreased from 144 to - 23, a decrease of 167 or 116.22% [5] - Spot market: The price of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel oil decreased from 475.00 to 465.00, a decrease of 10.00 or 2.11%. The price of Zhoushan low - sulfur fuel oil decreased from 495.00 to 485.00, a decrease of 10.00 or 2.02%. The price of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil decreased from 393.10 to 384.60, a decrease of 8.50 or 2.16%. The price of Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil decreased from 467.50 to 458.50, a decrease of 9.00 or 1.93%. The price of Middle - East high - sulfur fuel oil decreased from 370.77 to 362.27, a decrease of 8.50 or 2.29%. The price of Singapore diesel decreased from 646.70 to 638.15, a decrease of 8.56 or 1.32% [6] 4. Spread Data - The report does not provide specific spread data analysis other than the futures price and basis changes [3][5] 5. Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory: On July 2, it was 21.329 million barrels, a decrease of 1.42 million barrels; on July 9, it was 20.809 million barrels, a decrease of 0.52 million barrels; on July 16, it was 20.359 million barrels, a decrease of 0.45 million barrels; on July 23, it was 19.909 million barrels, a decrease of 0.45 million barrels; on July 30, it was 20.279 million barrels, an increase of 0.37 million barrels; on August 6, it was 20.749 million barrels, an increase of 0.47 million barrels; on August 13, it was 22.639 million barrels, an increase of 1.89 million barrels; on August 20, it was 23.919 million barrels, an increase of 1.28 million barrels; on August 27, it was 21.889 million barrels, a decrease of 2.03 million barrels; on September 3, it was 23.309 million barrels, an increase of 1.42 million barrels; on September 10, it was 23.039 million barrels, a decrease of 0.27 million barrels [8]