大越期货：2025-09-16原油早报-20250916

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term crude oil is expected to remain relatively strong, influenced by the US Treasury Secretary's remarks on Russian oil sanctions, progress in Sino - US trade negotiations, and market expectations of the Fed's interest rate cut this week. However, the medium - and long - term outlook is not optimistic due to the expected supply increase after the peak season and the resumption of operations at a Russian port previously attacked by Ukraine. Short - term trading is expected in the range of 490 - 500, and long - term long positions should be held for observation [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Daily Prompt - Fundamentals: Unless European countries impose high tariffs on China and India first, the Trump administration will not impose new tariffs on Chinese goods to stop China from buying Russian oil. Sino - US officials have reached a framework agreement on TikTok's ownership transfer. A Ukrainian drone attack on a Russian port has ended, and the port has resumed operations. The overall impact is neutral [3]. - Basis: On September 15, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $70.95 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $70.6 per barrel, with a basis of $44.5 per barrel, indicating that the spot price was higher than the futures price, which is bullish [3]. - Inventory: The US API crude oil inventory increased by 1.25 million barrels in the week ending September 5, and the EIA inventory increased by 3.939 million barrels, both exceeding expectations. The Cushing area inventory decreased by 0.365 million barrels in the week ending September 5. As of September 15, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 5.721 million barrels, which is bearish [3]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average was flat, and the price was near the average, showing a neutral trend [3]. - Main Positions: As of September 9, both WTI and Brent crude oil main positions were long, but the number of long positions decreased, which is bearish [3]. 3.2 Recent News - Supply Forecast: HSBC predicts that the oil market will have a large - scale surplus of 1.7 million barrels per day starting from the fourth quarter of 2025 and 2.4 million barrels per day in 2026. OPEC+ is expected to increase production in the next 12 months, exacerbating the surplus. HSBC has lowered its forecast for Russia's daily crude oil production at the end of 2026 by 300,000 barrels [5]. - Port Operations: A Ukrainian drone attack on Russia's Primorsk port on Friday has ended, and the port has resumed operations. At least two oil tankers have completed loading operations at the port [3][5]. - Trade Negotiations: Sino - US officials have reached a framework agreement on TikTok's ownership transfer to US control, and the original September 17 deadline may be extended by 90 days. The Trump administration will not impose new tariffs on Chinese goods to stop China from buying Russian oil unless European countries take the lead [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - Bullish Factors: None mentioned. - Bearish Factors: Institutional monthly reports have a weak outlook for the future, and the trade relationship between the US and other economies remains tense [6]. - Market Drivers: In the short term, geopolitical conflicts have decreased, while the risk of trade tariff issues has increased. In the medium - and long - term, supply is expected to increase after the peak season [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Futures Quotes: The settlement prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, SC crude oil, and Oman crude oil increased by $0.45 (0.67%), $0.61 (0.97%), $8.80 (1.84%), and $1.38 (1.98%) respectively [7]. - Spot Quotes: The spot prices of UK Brent, West Texas Intermediate, Oman crude oil, Shengli crude oil, and Dubai crude oil changed by - $0.10 (- 0.15%), $0.61 (0.97%), - $1.12 (- 1.58%), - $1.11 (- 1.71%), and - $1.17 (- 1.65%) respectively [9]. - Inventory Data: The US API and EIA crude oil inventories increased in the week ending September 5, while the Cushing area inventory decreased. The Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged [3]. 3.5 Position Data - WTI Crude Oil: As of September 9, the net long position of WTI crude oil funds decreased by 20,584 compared to the previous period [16]. - Brent Crude Oil: As of September 9, the net long position of Brent crude oil funds decreased by 41,476 compared to the previous period [17].