Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Steel prices are influenced by weak demand and supply - side contraction expectations. Seasonal improvement in apparent demand is expected later, with a narrowing supply - demand gap and mild inventory accumulation pressure. However, the apparent demand in the fourth quarter is unlikely to exceed the current production level. Currently, steel prices are supported by the strong raw material prices due to high steel mill production in September - October and supply - side expectations of coal. With the influence of coking coal and pre - National Day inventory replenishment, prices are expected to recover. The pressure levels for rebar and hot - rolled coils are 3350 yuan and 3500 yuan respectively [1]. Summary by Directory - Steel Prices and Spreads: Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices showed different changes. For example, rebar spot prices in different regions rose slightly or remained unchanged, and futures prices also increased. Hot - rolled coil spot prices in some regions increased slightly, and futures prices also showed an upward trend [1]. - Cost and Profit: Steel billet and slab prices remained unchanged. The cost of some steel production processes decreased, while the profit of hot - rolled coils in different regions increased, and the profit of rebar in some regions improved [1]. - Production: The daily average pig iron output increased by 5.1% to 240.6. The output of five major steel products decreased by 0.4% to 857.2. Rebar production decreased by 3.1% to 211.9, and hot - rolled coil production increased by 3.5% to 325.1 [1]. - Inventory: The inventory of five major steel products increased by 0.9% to 1514.6, rebar inventory increased by 2.2% to 653.9, and hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 0.3% to 373.3 [1]. - Transaction and Demand: Building material trading volume increased by 1.0%, the apparent demand of five major steel products increased by 1.9% to 843.3, rebar apparent demand decreased by 2.0% to 198.1, and hot - rolled coil apparent demand increased by 6.8% to 326.2 [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - As of the previous day's close, the iron ore 2601 contract showed a volatile downward trend. The global iron ore shipment volume increased significantly, and the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased. The demand side saw a slight decline in steel mill profit margins, a significant increase in pig iron output last week after major events, and an increase in steel mill inventory replenishment demand. The fundamentals improved slightly, but were still insufficient in the peak season, with raw materials stronger than finished products. In terms of inventory, port inventory increased slightly, and the port clearance volume increased month - on - month. Looking forward, due to the still - high profitability of steel mills, pig iron output in September will remain at a relatively high level, and the low port inventory year - on - year supports iron ore prices. The "anti - involution" work may lead to policies in the steel industry. Iron ore is currently in a balanced and tight pattern, with a bullish view on single - side fluctuations, and the recommended trading range is 780 - 850. It is recommended to go long on the iron ore 2601 contract on dips and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coils [4]. Summary by Directory - Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads: The warehouse receipt costs of some iron ore varieties decreased slightly. The basis of the 01 contract for some varieties increased significantly. The 5 - 9 spread and 9 - 1 spread changed significantly, while the 1 - 5 spread decreased slightly [4]. - Spot Prices and Price Indexes: The spot prices of some iron ore varieties at Rizhao Port decreased slightly, and the new exchange 62% Fe swap and Platts 62% Fe index increased slightly [4]. - Supply: The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 3.5% to 2362.3, and the global weekly shipment volume increased by 29.6% to 3573.1. The national monthly import volume decreased by 1.2% to 10462.3 [4]. - Demand: The weekly average daily pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 5.1% to 240.6, the weekly average daily port clearance volume at 45 ports increased by 4.2% to 337.3, the national monthly pig iron output decreased by 1.4% to 6979.0, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 2.9% to 7737.0 [4]. - Inventory Changes: The 45 - port inventory decreased slightly, the import ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 0.6% to 8993.1, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 4.8% to 20.0 [4]. Group 3: Coke Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - As of the previous day's close, the coke futures showed a strong rebound, with a divergence between the recent futures and spot prices. The second - round price cut by steel mills in the spot market was implemented, and the port trade quotes followed the decline. The third - round price cut is considered difficult. On the supply side, coking enterprises in the north resumed production rapidly due to still - existing profits after two - round price cuts. On the demand side, steel mills resumed production this week, and the downstream demand was still supported. In terms of inventory, coking plants and steel mills increased inventory slightly, while ports reduced inventory, and the overall inventory increased slightly in the middle position. The futures market is more focused on the decline range of coking coal and coke in September and the driving force for bottom - building and rebound in the future. It is recommended to go long on the coke 2601 contract on dips in the range of 1650 - 1800 and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke, paying attention to market risks [6]. Summary by Directory - Coke - Related Prices and Spreads: The prices of some coke varieties decreased, and the futures prices of coke increased. The basis and spreads of the 01 and 05 contracts changed. The coking profit decreased slightly [6]. - Supply: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 3.8% to 66.8, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 5.1% to 240.6 [6]. - Demand: The iron water output of 247 steel mills increased by 5.1% to 240.6, and the daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 3.8% to 66.8 [6]. - Inventory Changes: The total coke inventory increased by 1.2% to 906.2, the coke inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 2.0% to 67.8, the coke inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 1.5% to 633.3, and the port inventory remained unchanged [6]. - Coke Supply - Demand Gap Changes: The coke supply - demand gap decreased by 75.44% to - 3.1 [6]. Group 4: Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - As of the previous day's close, the coking coal futures showed a strong rebound, with a certain divergence between futures and spot. The spot auction prices were stable to weak, and the Mongolian coal quotes followed the futures rebound. On the supply side, domestic coking coal auctions have stabilized recently. After the price adjustment, the downstream purchasing willingness has recovered, but it still takes time for the price to bottom out and rebound. This week, the main - producing area coal mines resumed production as expected, and the logistics and transportation recovered. In terms of imports, the Mongolian coal prices fluctuated with the futures. On the demand side, the pig iron output increased significantly this week, and the coking operation rate increased synchronously. In terms of inventory, coal mines, coking plants, and steel mills reduced inventory, while coal washing plants, ports, and border ports increased inventory slightly, and the overall inventory decreased slightly in the middle position. It is recommended to go long on the coking coal 2601 contract on dips in the range of 1070 - 1300 and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke, paying attention to market risks [6]. Summary by Directory - Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads: The prices of some coking coal varieties decreased slightly, and the futures prices of coking coal increased. The basis and spreads of the 01 and 05 contracts changed [6]. - Supply: The weekly output of raw coal increased by 5.4% to 867, and the weekly output of clean coal increased by 5.6% to 442.5 [6]. - Demand: The iron water output of 247 steel mills increased by 5.1% to 240.6, and the daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 3.8% to 66.8 [6]. - Inventory Changes: The coking coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines increased by 1.2% to 125.0, the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 4.0% to 883.5, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.34% to 793.7, and the port inventory decreased by 1.6% to 271.1 [6].
广发期货：《黑色》日报-20250916
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-09-16 03:31