大越期货沥青期货早报-20250916

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of asphalt is expected to decrease in the short - term as refineries have recently reduced production. However, the overall demand recovery is less than expected and remains sluggish. The cost is supported by the strengthening of crude oil in the short - term. It is expected that the asphalt futures market will fluctuate narrowly in the short - term, with the asphalt 2511 contract fluctuating in the range of 3371 - 3415 [7][9]. - The bullish factors include relatively high crude oil costs providing some support; the bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods and the overall downward demand with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [11][12]. - The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: In August 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 30.501%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.90 percentage points. The refineries reduced production this week, and it is expected to reduce supply pressure next week [7]. - Demand: The current demand for various types of asphalt is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 28.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month; the modified asphalt开工率 was 15.8893%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.25 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 27.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.83 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 33.93%, a month - on - month increase of 0.07 percentage points [7]. - Cost: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 513.38 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 792.0771 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 6.94%. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. The strengthening of crude oil is expected to support the market in the short - term [8]. - Basis: On September 15, the spot price in Shandong was 3,520 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 127 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [9]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 1.225 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.54%; the in - factory inventory was 0.642 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.74%; the port diluted asphalt inventory was 0.32 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 68.42%. Social and in - factory inventories are continuously decreasing, while port inventories are continuously increasing [9]. - Market: The MA20 is downward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20 [9]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position is increasing [9]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - Futures Closing Price: The prices of different contracts showed various changes. For example, the 11 - contract futures price increased by 0.74% compared with the previous value [16]. - Downstream Demand and Other Data: The downstream demand开工率, asphalt coking profit, weekly shipment volume, weekly production, and inventory data all had different degrees of change. For example, the weekly shipment volume of the whole country was 263,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.11%; the sample enterprise production was 509,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.86% [16]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Basis and Spread Trends: The report provides the historical trends of the basis in Shandong and East China, as well as the spread trends of main contracts such as 1 - 6 and 6 - 12, the price trends of asphalt and crude oil, the crude oil cracking spread, and the price - ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil [18][21][24]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis: It includes the profit trend of asphalt and the profit spread trend between coking and asphalt [36][39]. - Supply - Side Analysis: It covers aspects such as shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, production volume, Ma Rui crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production, local refinery asphalt production,开工率, and maintenance loss volume [42][44][47]. - Inventory Analysis: It involves exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, in - factory inventory, and in - factory inventory inventory ratio [62][66][69]. - Import and Export Situation: The report shows the export and import trends of asphalt and the import price difference trend of South Korean asphalt [72][75]. - Demand - Side Analysis: It includes petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand (such as highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion), downstream mechanical demand, asphalt开工率, and downstream开工情况 [78][81][84]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance table, including asphalt monthly production, import volume, export volume, social inventory, factory inventory, diluted asphalt port inventory, and downstream demand [104].