大越期货沥青期货早报2025年9月16日-20250916

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of asphalt is expected to decrease as refineries have recently reduced production. The overall demand recovery is less than expected and remains sluggish, but the inventory is continuously being depleted. With the strengthening of crude oil, the cost support is expected to strengthen in the short - term. The asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short - term, with the asphalt 2511 contract fluctuating in the range of 3371 - 3415 [7][9]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. The positive factors include relatively high crude oil costs providing some support, positive fundamentals, positive basis, and positive inventory trends. The negative factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods, overall downward demand, strengthened expectations of an economic recession in Europe and the United States, a downward - sloping MA20 on the disk, and a net short position of the main contract with an increase in short positions [7][9][11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: In August 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2413,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 30.501%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.90 percentage points. The output of sample enterprises was 509,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.86%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 685,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.44%. Refineries have reduced production this week, reducing supply pressure, and the supply pressure is expected to decrease next week [7]. - Demand: The construction rate of heavy - traffic asphalt was 28.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points; the construction rate of building asphalt was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month; the construction rate of modified asphalt was 15.8893%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.25 percentage points; the construction rate of road - modified asphalt was 27.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.83 percentage points; the construction rate of waterproofing membranes was 33.93%, a month - on - month increase of 0.07 percentage points. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [7]. - Cost: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 513.38 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 792.0771 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 6.94%. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. With the strengthening of crude oil, it is expected to provide short - term support [8]. - Basis: On September 15, the spot price in Shandong was 3520 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 127 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [9]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 1,225,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.54%; the in - plant inventory was 642,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.74%; the port - diluted asphalt inventory was 320,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 68.42%. The social and in - plant inventories are continuously being depleted, while the port inventory is continuously increasing [9]. - Disk: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20 [9]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position is increasing [9]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides detailed data on the previous day's asphalt market, including futures closing prices, some monthly spreads, spot prices in different regions, downstream demand construction rates, asphalt coking profits, weekly shipments, weekly production and loss volumes, weekly construction rates, and weekly inventories, as well as their changes and percentage changes [16]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2025, which helps to analyze the relationship between the spot and futures prices [18][19]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread: The historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 are shown, which is useful for spread trading analysis [21][22]. - Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend: The historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 to 2025 are presented, which helps to understand the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [24][25]. - Crude Oil Crack Spread: The historical trends of the asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent crude oil crack spreads from 2020 to 2025 are shown, which is important for analyzing the profitability of asphalt processing [27][28][29]. - Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend: The historical trends of the asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil price ratios from 2020 to 2025 are presented, which helps to analyze the relative value of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil [31][33]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The historical trend of the Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt price from 2020 to 2025 is shown, which helps to understand the price changes in the asphalt spot market [34][35]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis - Asphalt Profit: The historical trend of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 is presented, which helps to analyze the profitability of asphalt production [36][37]. - Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend: The historical trend of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2025 is shown, which is important for analyzing the profit difference between asphalt and coking products [39][40][41]. - Supply - Side Analysis - Shipment Volume: The historical trend of weekly asphalt shipments from 2020 to 2025 is presented, which helps to understand the supply - side shipment situation [42][43]. - Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory: The historical trend of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 is shown, which is useful for analyzing the supply - side inventory situation [44][45]. - Production: The historical trends of weekly and monthly asphalt production from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which helps to understand the overall supply - side production situation [47][48]. - Maya Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend: The historical trends of the Maya crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2025 are shown, which is important for analyzing the impact of raw materials on asphalt production [51][53]. - Local Refinery Asphalt Production: The historical trend of local refinery asphalt production from 2019 to 2025 is presented, which helps to understand the production situation of local refineries [54][55]. - Construction Rate: The historical trend of the weekly asphalt construction rate from 2021 to 2025 is shown, which helps to analyze the supply - side production activity [57][58]. - Estimated Maintenance Loss Volume: The historical trend of the estimated maintenance loss volume of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 is presented, which helps to understand the impact of equipment maintenance on supply [59][60]. - Inventory Analysis - Exchange Warehouse Receipt: The historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which helps to analyze the inventory situation in the futures market [62][63][64]. - Social and In - Plant Inventory: The historical trends of social and in - plant asphalt inventories from 2022 to 2025 are shown, which helps to understand the overall inventory situation [66][67]. - In - Plant Inventory Inventory Ratio: The historical trend of the in - plant inventory inventory ratio from 2018 to 2025 is presented, which helps to analyze the inventory management efficiency of refineries [69][70]. - Import and Export Situation - The historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which helps to understand the international trade situation of asphalt [72][73]. - The historical trend of the South Korean asphalt import price spread from 2020 to 2025 is shown, which is useful for analyzing the competitiveness of imported asphalt [76][77]. - Demand - Side Analysis - Petroleum Coke Production: The historical trend of petroleum coke production from 2019 to 2025 is presented, which helps to understand the demand - side situation related to petroleum coke [78][79]. - Apparent Consumption: The historical trend of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 is shown, which helps to analyze the overall market demand [81][82]. - Downstream Demand - Highway Construction and Fixed - Asset Investment in Transportation: The historical trend of highway construction and fixed - asset investment in transportation from 2020 to 2025 is presented, which helps to understand the demand for asphalt in infrastructure construction [84][85]. - New Local Special Bonds and Infrastructure Investment Completion Rate: The historical trends of new local special bonds and the infrastructure investment completion rate from 2019 to 2025 are shown, which is important for analyzing the impact of policy on asphalt demand [86]. - Downstream Machinery Demand: The historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly operating hours, domestic excavator sales, and road roller sales from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which helps to understand the demand for asphalt in the construction machinery field [88][90][91][92]. - Asphalt Construction Rate - Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Construction Rate: The historical trend of the heavy - traffic asphalt construction rate from 2019 to 2025 is presented, which helps to analyze the demand - side activity of heavy - traffic asphalt [93][94]. - Asphalt Construction Rate by Use: The historical trends of the construction rates of building asphalt, modified asphalt, shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt, and other types of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are shown, which helps to understand the demand for different types of asphalt [96][97][99][100][102]. 3.7 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides a monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to September 2025, including asphalt monthly production, import volume, export volume, social inventory, factory inventory, diluted asphalt port inventory, and downstream demand, which helps to comprehensively analyze the supply - demand relationship in the asphalt market [104][105].