工业硅期货早报-20250916

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - For industrial silicon, the supply side's production schedule has increased and is near the historical average, while demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support has risen slightly. The 2511 contract is expected to oscillate in the 8665 - 8935 range [6][8]. - For polysilicon, the supply - side production is expected to decrease in the short term and recover in the medium term. Demand shows continuous recovery, and cost support remains stable. The 2511 contract is expected to oscillate in the 52565 - 54525 range [10][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week's supply was 90,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [6]. - Demand: Last week's demand was 78,000 tons, a 3.70% decrease from the previous week. Demand remains sluggish. Polysilicon inventory is at a low level, while organic silicon and aluminum alloy ingot inventories are at high levels [6]. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the sample oxygen - containing 553 production loss is 3237 yuan/ton, and the cost support during the wet season has weakened [6]. - Other factors: The basis is positive, inventory is negative, the disk is positive, the main position is negative [8]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - Supply: Last week's output was 31,200 tons, a 3.31% increase from the previous week. The September production schedule is expected to be 126,700 tons, a 3.79% decrease from the previous month [10]. - Demand: Silicon wafer production and inventory trends vary. Battery cell and component production are showing positive trends, with components currently profitable [10]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon is 35,620 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 14,430 yuan/ton [10]. - Other factors: The basis is negative, inventory is neutral, the disk is positive, the main position is positive [10]. 3.2 Market Overview 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - Futures prices of different contracts have different degrees of increase or decrease, and spot prices of different grades are mostly stable [16]. - Inventories in various regions and ports have increased to varying degrees [16]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - Prices of different types of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components have different trends, with some showing increases and others remaining stable [18]. - Inventory and production data of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components also show different changes [18]. 3.3 Price and Trend Charts - Industrial silicon: The price - basis and delivery product spread trends, inventory trends, production and capacity utilization trends, cost trends, and supply - demand balance trends are presented through charts [20][26][27][35][37]. - Polysilicon: The disk price trend, cost trend, supply - demand balance trend, and downstream product price and production trends are presented through charts [23][63][65][69]