广发期货日评-20250916

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market may price in the probability of the Fed restarting rate cuts ahead of the September FOMC meeting. Different trading strategies are recommended for various futures contracts based on their market conditions, including index futures, bond futures, precious metals, shipping, black commodities, non - ferrous metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Index Futures - Index futures show volatile differentiation, with the new energy sector being structurally strong. For IF2509, the market may price in the Fed's rate - cut probability ahead of the September FOMC meeting. If volatility declines, an options double - buy strategy can be considered. For T2512, TF2512, TS2512, and TL2512, domestic demand needs to be boosted, but rising risk appetite suppresses long - term bonds. A single - side strategy suggests investors wait and watch, focusing on the capital market, equity market, and policy trends [2]. Precious Metals - Gold should be bought cautiously at low prices above the 20 - day average, or sell out - of - the - money put options to capture volatility decline gains. Silver may continue to rise above $42 but with potential volatility decline, so sell out - of - the - money put options at high prices [2]. Shipping - The main contract of the container shipping index (EC2510) is weakly volatile, and a 12 - 10 spread arbitrage can be considered [2]. Black Commodities - Steel prices rise due to anti - involution expectations, and short - term long positions are recommended for RB2601. For I2601, buy at low prices in the range of 780 - 850, and consider a long - iron ore short - hot - rolled coil strategy. For JM2601, buy at low prices in the range of 1150 - 1300, and consider a long - coking - coal short - coke strategy. For J2601, buy at low prices in the range of 1650 - 1800, and consider a long - coking - coal short - coke strategy [2]. Non - Ferrous Metals - For copper (CU2510), trade the easing expectation before the rate cut, with the main contract in the range of 79500 - 82000. For alumina (AO2601), the price is weakly volatile, with the main contract in the range of 2900 - 3200. For aluminum (AL2510), it is expected to continue high - level volatility, with the main contract in the range of 20600 - 21400. For zinc (ZN2510), the price is boosted by rate - cut expectations, with the main contract in the range of 21800 - 22800. For tin (SN2510), the price is high - level volatile, with the operating range of 285000 - 265000. For nickel (NI2510), the main contract is in the range of 120000 - 125000. For stainless steel (SS2511), the main contract is in the range of 12800 - 13400 [2]. Energy - For crude oil (SC2511), geopolitical risks increase short - term concerns, but easing pressure limits the rebound height. It is recommended to wait and watch on the single - side, with resistance levels for WTI at [65, 66], Brent at [68, 69], and SC at [500, 510]. Wait for volatility to increase for options trading [2]. Chemicals - For urea (UR2601), supply is expected to increase, and the demand gap is extended, so the short - term rebound is limited. For PX (PX2511), the supply - demand in September is expected to be loose, and it fluctuates with oil prices, with the short - term range of 6600 - 6900. For PTA (TA2601), the supply - demand in September is expected to be tight but weak in the medium - term, with the short - term range of 4600 - 4800 and a TA1 - 5 rolling reverse - spread strategy. For short - fiber (PF2511), it has no obvious short - term driver and follows raw materials. For bottle - chip (PR2511), the demand may decline in September, and the processing fee range is 350 - 500 yuan/ton. For ethylene glycol (EG2601), the supply - demand is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term, and an EG1 - 5 reverse - spread strategy is recommended. For caustic soda (SH2601), wait and watch. For PVC (V2601), close out previous short positions. For benzene (BZ2603), it follows benzene - ethylene and oil prices. For benzene - ethylene (EB2510), it has strong short - term support, and a rolling low - buy strategy is recommended, and expand the EB11 - BZ11 spread. For synthetic rubber (BR2511), the price range is expected to be 11400 - 12500. For LLDPE (L2601), it fluctuates in the range of 7150 - 7450. For PP2601, it is slightly bullish. For methanol (MA2601), trade in the range of 2350 - 2550 [2]. Agricultural Products - For soymeal (M2601, RM601), domestic soymeal is under pressure due to Sino - US economic and trade talks. For live hogs (LH2511), it is in a weakly volatile pattern. For corn (C2511), be cautious about short - selling. For palm oil (P2601, Y2601, O1601), strong exports support its price, and the short - term main contract may reach 9500. For white sugar (SR2601), go long in the short - term, paying attention to the pressure at 5700 - 5750. For cotton (CF2601), wait and watch on the single - side. For eggs (JD2511), reduce previous short positions. For apples (AP2601), the main contract runs around 8300. For orange juice (CJ2601), pay attention to the support at 10700 [2]. Special Commodities - For soda ash (SA2601), wait and watch as the price is driven by macro - sentiment with no obvious fundamental changes. For glass (FG2601), wait and watch and focus on the spot market sentiment in the peak season. For rubber (RU2601), wait and watch as the price is high - level volatile due to positive macro - sentiment. For industrial silicon (Si2511), the price range is expected to be 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton [2]. New Energy - For polysilicon (PS2511), wait and watch for the results of the polysilicon enterprise self - discipline meeting. For lithium carbonate (LC2511), the main contract runs in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 [2].