美联储会议临近，金银走强

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The recent approach of the Fed's interest - rate meeting and the weakening of most economic data have led to a more obvious impact on domestic commodities. The risk appetite in the domestic market fluctuates greatly, but the silver price is still supported overall, showing a pattern of strong silver and weak gold. The probability of policy intensification increases due to the slowdown of domestic economic data in August [26]. - The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations have significantly increased. The political pressure on the Fed is huge. The impact of US economic data is magnified under the shadow Fed. The expectation of interest - rate cuts this year has risen to 3 times, and the expectation for next year has also started to increase. The interest - rate cut in the September Fed meeting this week is almost certain. The rise of gold and silver prices driven by expectations has been completed, and there has been no early decline yet. The sentiment is neutral and slightly bullish, and the future depends on Trump's political suppression of the Fed [26][55]. - Gold and silver prices are significantly affected by risk preference. In the past three years, they have shown a positive correlation. Under the loose expectation, risk preference is high, and a shift in asset preference cannot be ruled out. Gold and silver prices tend to complete the process of rising and then falling before the occurrence of key events. After the non - farm payrolls data was unexpectedly revised down, there has been a post - event correction trend, but there has been no obvious decline, and the sentiment may still remain. The strength of the driving force for gold and silver prices depends on the September dot - plot, but the upward trend remains unchanged [55]. - The prices of Shanghai gold and Shanghai silver are currently at historical highs with no upper pressure levels. It is recommended to hold them for the long - term. The pressure level for COMEX silver is at 43.75, and it is very likely to reach this price, and the pattern of strong silver and weak gold remains unchanged [55]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - Since 2020, there have been only 45 trading days when the daily increase in positions of Shanghai silver exceeded 50,000 lots, and only 3 trading days when it exceeded 100,000 lots. On September 1st, the increase was 92,000 lots. For Shanghai gold, there have been only 8 trading days when the daily increase in positions exceeded 20,000 lots, and only on September 1st did it exceed 30,000 lots [14]. 3.2 Logical Analysis - Affected by the approaching Fed's interest - rate meeting and the weakening of most economic data, domestic commodities have been more significantly impacted. The risk preference in the domestic market fluctuates greatly, but the silver price is still supported overall, being affected by the photovoltaic industry and the chip sector, resulting in a pattern of strong silver and weak gold. The slowdown of domestic economic data in August increases the probability of policy intensification [26]. - Trade disputes still exist, but the agreements of major trading economies have been basically determined in the short term, and market attention has significantly decreased. The weakening trend of US dollar assets has been broken, but with the significant increase in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, the political pressure on the Fed is huge. The impact of US economic data is magnified under the shadow Fed. The expectation of interest - rate cuts this year has risen to 3 times, and the expectation for next year has also started to increase. The interest - rate cut in the September Fed meeting this week is almost certain [26][55]. - In August, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics significantly revised down the previous year's employment data, further increasing economic concerns. The bond market reflects economic concerns, while the stock market reflects the optimistic expectation of interest - rate cuts. Both factors push up the prices of gold and silver. As the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle approaches, the driving force of the optimistic expectation of interest - rate cuts is more obvious [26]. - Geopolitical frictions continue, and political turmoil within many countries has intensified [26]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations have significantly increased. The probability of an interest - rate cut in September is 100%, 82.3% in October, and the expectation of three interest - rate cuts in December reaches 77% [29][31][34]. - The prices of Shanghai gold and Shanghai silver are currently at historical highs with no upper pressure levels. The pressure level for COMEX silver is at 43.75, and it is very likely to reach this price, and the pattern of strong silver and weak gold remains unchanged [55]. 3.4 Position Data - As of September 12, 2025, for Shanghai gold's top 20 positions, the long - position volume was 251,147 lots, an increase of 1.32% from the previous day; the short - position volume was 84,280 lots, an increase of 0.16%; and the net position was 166,867 lots, an increase of 1.91% [42]. - As of September 12, 2025, for Shanghai silver's top 20 positions, the long - position volume was 386,061 lots, an increase of 6.68% from the previous day; the short - position volume was 285,157 lots, an increase of 17.73%; and the net position was 100,904 lots, a decrease of 15.69% [45]. - Gold ETF positions have increased in a volatile manner, while silver ETF positions have decreased in a volatile manner and have not recovered with the price increase. The sentiment has started to cool down before the event [46]. - COMEX gold inventories are fluctuating and remain at the highest level in the past 5 years. Shanghai gold inventories continue to increase. COMEX silver inventories continue to increase, and there are still concerns about tariffs. Shanghai silver inventories have recently increased and are higher than the same period last year [48][50][51]. 3.5 Summary - This week is a heavy - weight central bank week. The Fed, along with the central banks of Japan, the UK, and Canada, will announce their latest policy interest rates. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations have significantly increased, and the political pressure on the Fed is huge. The impact of US economic data is magnified under the shadow Fed. The expectation of interest - rate cuts this year has risen to 3 times, and the expectation for next year has also started to increase. The interest - rate cut in the September Fed meeting this week is almost certain. The rise of gold and silver prices driven by expectations has been completed, and there has been no early decline yet. The sentiment is neutral and slightly bullish. The future depends on Trump's political suppression of the Fed. The return of a favorable environment for gold and silver price increases, combined with a loose cycle and a weakening US dollar [55]. - Gold and silver prices are significantly affected by risk preference. In the past three years, they have shown a positive correlation. Under the loose expectation, risk preference is high, and a shift in asset preference cannot be ruled out. Gold and silver prices tend to complete the process of rising and then falling before the occurrence of key events. After the non - farm payrolls data was unexpectedly revised down, there has been a post - event correction trend, but there has been no obvious decline, and the sentiment may still remain. The strength of the driving force for gold and silver prices depends on the September dot - plot, but the upward trend remains unchanged [55]. - The prices of Shanghai gold and Shanghai silver are currently at historical highs with no upper pressure levels. It is recommended to hold them for the long - term. The pressure level for COMEX silver is at 43.75, and it is very likely to reach this price, and the pattern of strong silver and weak gold remains unchanged [55].