瑞达期货纯碱玻璃产业日报-20250916

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - For soda ash, supply is expected to be ample, demand to stabilize, and prices to remain under pressure overall, but there may be variables with "anti - involution" speculation. It is recommended to go long on the soda ash main contract on dips [2]. - For glass, the supply side shows a slight increase in overall output at the bottom with obvious signs of rigid - demand production and rising profits. The demand side is affected by the sluggish real - estate market. The market will fluctuate around the demand side, and there may be sentiment - driven opportunities in the short - term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Soda ash main contract closing price: 1339 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan; glass main contract closing price: 1237 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2]. - Soda ash and glass price difference: 102 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; glass main contract position: 1280068 lots, soda ash main contract position: 1338629 lots, down 61404 lots [2]. - Soda ash top 20 net position: - 2128 lots, down 101682 lots; glass top 20 net position: - 154749 lots, up 61877 lots [2]. - Soda ash exchange warehouse receipts: 6250 tons, down 666 tons; glass exchange warehouse receipts: 1605 tons, down 459 tons [2]. - Soda ash basis: - 113 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; glass basis: - 157 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan [2]. - January - May glass contract spread: - 101 yuan, up 3 yuan; January - May soda ash contract spread: - 75 yuan, up 3 yuan [2]. Spot Market - North China heavy soda: 1195 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; Central China heavy soda: 1300 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - East China light soda: 1250 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China light soda: 1210 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Shahe glass sheets: 1068 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; Central China glass sheets: 1110 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - Soda ash plant operating rate: 87.29%, up 1.07 percentage points; float - glass enterprise operating rate: 76.01%, unchanged [2]. - Glass in - production capacity: 16.02 million tons/year, up 0.06 million tons/year; glass in - production line number: 225, unchanged [2]. - Soda ash enterprise inventory: 174.71 million tons, down 5.04 million tons; glass enterprise inventory: 6158.3 million heavy - cases, down 146.7 million heavy - cases [2]. Downstream Situation - Cumulative real - estate new - construction area: 35206 million square meters, up 4841.68 million square meters; cumulative real - estate completion area: 25034 million square meters, up 2467.39 million square meters [2]. Industry News - Hubei Shuanghuan's soda ash plant started operation, with a light - soda price of 1160 yuan/ton [2]. - Henan Haohua Junhua's soda ash plant reduced production due to synthetic ammonia problems and raised prices [2]. - Zhongyan Anhui Hongsifang's soda ash plant reduced production [2]. - Tangshan Sanyou's 2.3 million - ton/year soda ash plant reduced operation to about 70% capacity [2]. - Shandong Haitian Biological Chemical's 1.5 million - ton/year soda ash plant operated at about 70% capacity [2]. - Shandong Haihua's 3 million - ton/year soda ash plant reduced operation [2]. - Guangdong Southern Alkali's 600,000 - ton/year soda ash plant operated at about 80% capacity [2]. - Qinghai Wucai's 1.1 million - ton/year soda ash plant operated stably, with no price quotes and one - order - one - negotiation [2]. - One line of Henan Tongbai Haijing's plant was under maintenance from September 13th for about 10 days, with stable prices [2]. - Anhui Huainan Alkali's plant boiler was ignited [2]. - The Sichuan - Chongqing soda ash market was stable, with expected supply increase after plant resumption and strong market wait - and - see sentiment [2]. Viewpoint Summary - Soda ash: Supply is expected to be loose, demand to stabilize, and prices to be under pressure. It is recommended to go long on dips [2]. - Glass: Supply is at the bottom with a slight increase, and demand is affected by the real - estate market. The market will fluctuate around demand, and there may be short - term sentiment - driven opportunities [2]. Tip to Follow No news today [2].