瑞达期货工业硅产业日报-20250916

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side of the industrial silicon industry shows a regional differentiation trend of "steady production increase in the northwest and capacity shrinkage in the southwest." The actual production progress of new capacity in Xinjiang needs to be tracked next week [2]. - The total demand for industrial silicon from the three major downstream industries remains flat. The current industry inventory is still at a high level, and inventory digestion faces certain pressure [2]. - The spot price of industrial silicon continued to rise today, and it is expected to continue to rise in the future. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low prices. If the price falls below 8,200 yuan later, one can consider medium - and long - term long positions at low prices [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 8,915 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 115 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract was 287,184 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 3,764 lots; the net position of the top 20 was - 59,221 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 17,194 lots; the warehouse receipts of GIE were 49,905 lots [2]. - The closing price of the December contract for industrial silicon was - 370 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/ton; the spread between the November and December contracts for industrial silicon was - 370 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/ton [2]. Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - permeable 553 silicon was 9,300 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 100 yuan/ton; the average price of 421 silicon was 9,600 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 100 yuan/ton [2]. - The basis of the Si main contract was 385 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 15 yuan/ton; the DMC spot price was 11,020 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week [2]. Upstream Situation - The average price of silica was 410 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the average price of petroleum coke was 1,860 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton [2]. - The average price of clean coal was 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the average price of wood chips was 490 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) was 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon was 366,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 33,600 tons; the social inventory of industrial silicon was 552,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,000 tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of industrial silicon was 2,211.36 tons, a month - on - month increase of 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon was 52,919.65 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12,197.89 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC was 44,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot market was 20,900 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week [2]. - The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 6.45 US dollars/kg, a week - on - week increase of 0.25 US dollars/kg; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 15.75 US dollars/kg, unchanged from the previous week [2]. - The monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy was 24,908.89 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 861.29 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC was 72.71%, a week - on - week increase of 2.12 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of aluminum alloy was 1.536 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 133,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy was 20,187.85 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 337.93 tons [2]. Industry News - The CSI Photovoltaic Industry Index tracked by the Photovoltaic Leading ETF (159609) rose 1.62%. Among the heavy - weight stocks, Canadian Solar rose 5.5%, Ginlong Technologies rose 3.8%, Deye Technology rose 3.6%, Junda Co., Ltd. rose 3.3%, Shangneng Electric rose 3.1%, Sungrow Power Supply rose 7.3%, LONGi Green Energy rose 1.0%, TBEA Co., Ltd. rose 0.3%, and Tongwei Co., Ltd. rose 0.8% [2]. - From a fundamental perspective, on the supply side, as the wet season deepens, the electricity price advantage in the southwest region becomes more obvious, stimulating a significant acceleration in the resumption of production of silicon plants [2]. - On the demand side, the three major downstream industries of industrial silicon (organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy) have a flat total demand for industrial silicon [2].