瑞达期货棉花（纱）产业日报-20250916

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 2025/26 global cotton production, consumption are increased, and the estimated ending inventory is decreased, which is relatively positive for the cotton market [2] - Domestically, the inventory remains at a low level, and the market supply is still tight. Downstream orders have slightly increased, while the spinning mills' operating rate remains low. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton's main contract closing price is 13,895 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; cotton yarn's main contract closing price is 19,950 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2] - The net position of the top 20 in cotton futures is - 34,949 lots, down 4,544 lots; that of cotton yarn futures is - 172 lots, up 142 lots [2] - The main contract's open interest for cotton is 492,631 lots, down 5,664 lots; for cotton yarn, it is 20,282 lots, down 858 lots [2] - Cotton's warehouse receipt quantity is 4,759 sheets, down 140 sheets; cotton yarn's is 89 sheets, unchanged [2] Spot Market - China's cotton price index (CCIndex:3128B) is 15,300 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan; China's yarn price index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 20,775 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2] - China's imported cotton price index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 13,388 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan; the arrival price of imported pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 21,440 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan [2] - China's imported cotton price index (FCIndexM:sliding duty) is 14,224 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan; the arrival price of imported pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 22,793 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national cotton sown area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 616 tons, an increase of 54 tons [2] - The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,475 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan; the national industrial inventory of cotton is 87 tons, an increase of 1.3 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of cotton is 5 tons, an increase of 2 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn is 110,000 tons, unchanged [2] - The profit of imported cotton is 1,025 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan; the national commercial inventory of cotton is 148.17 tons, a decrease of 70.81 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The yarn inventory days are 27.67 days, down 0.69 days; the grey fabric inventory days are 36.14 days, down 1.1 days [2] - The monthly output of cloth is 2.7 billion meters, down 0.79 billion meters; the monthly output of yarn is 199.15 tons, down 7.35 tons [2] - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 1,516,175.9 million US dollars, down 10,495.5 million US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 1,160,400.9 million US dollars, down 44,419.8 million US dollars [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of cotton at - the - money call options is 11.06%, up 0.03%; that of put options is 11.09%, up 0.06% [2] - Cotton's 20 - day historical volatility is 9.75%, up 0.37%; 60 - day historical volatility is 7.04%, up 0.06% [2] Industry News - The US cotton supply - demand outlook for September 2025/26 shows a slight increase in production, while export, consumption, import or inventory remain unchanged. The US cotton production is expected to increase by 10,000 bales to 13.2 million bales [2] - As of the week ending September 14, 2025, the US cotton good - to - excellent rate is 52%, down from 54% the previous week and up from 39% in the same period last year [2] - The USDA's September global cotton supply - demand report shows that the 2025/26 global cotton production forecast is increased by 23.1 tons to 2,562.2 tons, consumption is increased by 18.3 tons to 2,587.2 tons, and the ending inventory is decreased by 16.8 tons to 1,592.4 tons [2] Suggested Attention - No news today [2]