瑞达期货多晶硅产业日报-20250916

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint The overall supply - demand situation of the polysilicon market shows an increase in supply and a decrease in demand. The photovoltaic industry chain has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with high terminal transaction pressure. The price of polysilicon is expected to weaken, and it is likely to maintain a volatile trend. The operation suggestion is to wait and see or arrange put options [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Market Data - Futures Market: The closing price of the main polysilicon contract is 53,670 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan; the main position is 127,779 lots, down 4,433 lots; the 11 - 12 spread of polysilicon is - 2,525 yuan, up 45 yuan; the spread between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 44,755 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [3]. - Spot Market: The spot price of polysilicon is 51,550 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of polysilicon is - 1,995 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 6.45 US dollars/kg, up 0.25 US dollars [3]. - Upstream Situation: The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract is 8,915 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan; the spot price of industrial silicon is 9,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly output of industrial silicon is 366,800 tons, up 33,600 tons; the total social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [3]. - Industry Situation: The monthly output of polysilicon is 125,000 tons, up 20,000 tons; the monthly import volume of polysilicon is 1,170 tons, up 57 tons; the weekly spot price of imported polysilicon in China is 6.9 US dollars/kg, up 0.14 US dollars [3]. - Downstream Situation: The monthly output of solar cells is 66,382,000 kilowatts, down 1,004,000 kilowatts; the average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, up 0.01 RMB; the monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 110,432,680 pieces, up 21,456,820 pieces; the monthly import volume of photovoltaic modules is 14,525,650 pieces, up 3,429,750 pieces; the monthly average import price of photovoltaic modules is 0.29 US dollars/piece, down 0.02 US dollars [3]. b) Industry News The CSI Photovoltaic Industry Index tracked by the Photovoltaic Leading ETF (159609) rose 1.62%. Among the heavy - weight stocks, Arctech Solar rose 5.5%, Ginlong Technologies rose 3.8%, Deye Inverter rose 3.6%, Junda Co., Ltd. rose 3.3%, Shangneng Electric rose 3.1%, Sungrow Power Supply rose 7.3%, LONGi Green Energy rose 1.0%, TBEA Co., Ltd. rose 0.3%, and Tongwei Co., Ltd. rose 0.8%. The macro - level emphasizes rectifying the chaos of low - price and disorderly competition in enterprises. For polysilicon, the inventory is rising, but the increase is expected to be limited due to the anti - involution in the industry [3]. c) Key Points to Watch There is no news today [3].