2025-09-16 12:16Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the military industry [1] Core Views - The military industry is experiencing a revenue rebound, with significant increases in inventory and contract liabilities. In the first half of 2025, 141 listed companies in the military sector achieved a total revenue of 254.549 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.3%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 1.1% to 15.526 billion yuan [7][11][13] - The overall inventory of these companies reached 310.839 billion yuan, up 19.8%, while contract liabilities totaled 152.030 billion yuan, increasing by 14.9% [11][13] - The report suggests focusing on specific sub-sectors for investment opportunities, including the aircraft and aero-engine supply chain, missile and unmanned combat equipment, and military trade-related enterprises [17] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The military industry is showing signs of recovery, with a notable increase in revenue and contract liabilities. The overall gross margin for the industry is 18.7%, which is a slight increase from the previous year [13][16] - The report indicates a shift in industry dynamics, with upstream electronic components benefiting first, followed by downstream core components and equipment [16] Market Performance - In the first two weeks of September 2025, the military sector indices experienced significant adjustments, with the defense and military industry index dropping by 7.90%, underperforming compared to the broader market [18][24] - The report highlights that the military sector's performance was negatively impacted after the "September 3" military parade, leading to a sell-off in military stocks [18][20] Company Dynamics - Notable companies in the sector include: - 博实股份: Signed a major contract worth approximately 235.1132 million yuan [43] - 埃斯顿: Became the first domestic robot brand to lead the Chinese industrial robot market with a market share of 10.5% [44] - 融发核电: Reported a sufficient backlog of orders and is progressing according to production plans [46] - 中航西飞: Expanding strategic cooperation with Airbus to meet production needs for the A320 series [47] - 晶盛机电: Achieved domestic production of semiconductor equipment and is advancing global customer validation for silicon carbide substrates [48] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on ETFs related to the military sector, such as 富国中证军工龙头 ETF and 国泰中证军工 ETF, as potential investment vehicles [2]