沪铜产业日报-20250916

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper rose and then pulled back, with a decrease in open interest, a premium in the spot market, and a strengthening basis. The copper price is supported by the cost as the TC spot index of copper ore is in the negative range and the concentrate price remains firm. Supply of scrap copper and copper concentrate is tight, restricting smelter capacity, and combined with macro - factors such as the Fed's interest rate cut, the copper price is in a high - level range. The strong copper price suppresses downstream purchasing sentiment, resulting in a light trading volume in the spot market. The peak season has not yet boosted demand, and consumption recovery is slow. In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.37, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.0148, indicating a bullish sentiment, and the implied volatility slightly decreased. Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD, the two lines are above the 0 - axis and the green bars are expanding. The operation suggestion is to conduct light - position oscillatory trading, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper was 80,880 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper was 10,119.50 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 67 US dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract was - 20 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper was 165,216 lots, a decrease of 14,040 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper was - 7,538 lots, a decrease of 1,884 lots. The LME copper inventory was 152,625 tons, a decrease of 1,325 tons. The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 94,054 tons, an increase of 12,203 tons. The LME copper cancelled warrants were 17,175 tons, a decrease of 3,550 tons. The warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 33,692 tons, a decrease of 2,856 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot was 81,120 yuan/ton, an increase of 180 yuan; the price of 1 copper spot in the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Metals Market was 81,235 yuan/ton, an increase of 240 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 59 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper was 53.50 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract was 240 yuan/ton, an increase of 240 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread was - 61.93 US dollars/ton, an increase of 11.49 US dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 256.01 million tons, an increase of 21.05 million tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters was - 41.30 US dollars/thousand tons, a decrease of 0.45 US dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi was 71,280 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 10 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan was 71,980 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 10 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the South was 700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee of blister copper in the North was 700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The output of refined copper was 127 million tons, a decrease of 3.20 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 425,000 tons, a decrease of 55,000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper was 41.82 million tons, an increase of 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai was 56,170 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 68,650 yuan/ton, unchanged. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 590 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Downstream and Application - The output of copper products was 216.94 million tons, a decrease of 4.51 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure was 331.497 billion yuan, an increase of 40.431 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development was 60,309 billion yuan, an increase of 6,729.23 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,250 million pieces, a decrease of 439,220.70 pieces [2]. Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 8.31%, unchanged; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 7.73%, an increase of 0.01%. The implied volatility of at - the - money options in the current month was 13.92%, a decrease of 0.0177. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options was 1.37, a decrease of 0.0148 [2]. Industry News - The article "Deeply Promote the Construction of a Unified National Market" by General Secretary Xi Jinping was published in Qiushi. The government is determined to remove stubborn problems, rectify the chaos of low - price and disorderly competition among enterprises, government procurement and tendering, and local investment promotion; promote the integrated development of domestic and foreign trade and improve the legal system. From January to August, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.2% year - on - year; the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 32,611.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%, among which private investment decreased by 2.3% year - on - year. In August, the national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.3%; the total retail sales of consumer goods were 396.68 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. In August, the sales price of new commercial residential buildings in first - tier cities decreased by 0.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points month - on - month. Among them, Shanghai increased by 5.9%, while Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen decreased by 3.5%, 4.3%, and 1.7% respectively. The sales prices of new commercial residential buildings in second - and third - tier cities decreased by 2.4% and 3.7% year - on - year respectively, with the declines narrowing by 0.4 and 0.5 percentage points respectively. From January to August, the national real estate development investment was 60,309 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.9%; among which, residential investment was 46,382 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.9%. The sales area of new commercial housing was 573.04 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7%; among which, the sales area of residential housing decreased by 4.7%. The sales volume of new commercial housing was 55,015 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.3%; among which, the sales volume of residential housing decreased by 7.0%. Wall Street top strategists said that after the Fed cut interest rates this week, the record - breaking rally in the US stock market may lose momentum temporarily. Strategists from Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase, and Oppenheimer Asset Management warned that a more cautious tone may replace the bullish sentiment as investors turn their attention to the potential economic slowdown [2].