美银：全球基金经理调查：推动力与阻力-Global Fund Manager Survey Push and Bull

Investment Rating - The report indicates a bullish sentiment with the most bullish Fund Manager Survey (FMS) since February 2025, with cash levels at a low of 3.9% and equity allocation at a 7-month high [1][13][19]. Core Insights - There has been a significant increase in global growth optimism, with 67% of investors expecting a soft landing for the economy, and only 10% anticipating a hard landing [2][21][23]. - The report highlights a notable shift in asset allocation, with a record 58% of investors viewing global equity markets as overvalued, yet still increasing their allocation to equities [3][45]. - The biggest tail risk identified is a second wave of inflation, with 26% of investors expressing concern, while the risk of a trade war has diminished significantly [31][33]. Summary by Sections On Macro & Policy - The report notes the largest jump in growth expectations since October 2024, with 67% of investors expecting a soft landing and 18% no landing [2][21]. - Investors are demanding higher capital expenditures, reaching a 9-month high, while the desire for stronger balance sheets is at its lowest since February 2022 [2][27]. On Asset Allocation - Global equities are at a 7-month high in allocation, despite 58% of investors believing stocks are overvalued [3][45]. - There has been a significant rotation out of UK equities, with a net 20% underweight position, marking the largest drop since April 2004 [50][167]. On Contrarian Trades - The report identifies "Long Magnificent 7" as the most crowded trade, with 42% of investors participating, followed by "Long Gold" at 25% [42][44]. - Contrarian long trades include bonds and UK stocks, while contrarian shorts focus on banks and healthcare [4][42]. On Investor Sentiment - The FMS sentiment index rose to 5.4 from 4.5, indicating increased optimism among investors [13]. - A record 58% of investors view global equity markets as overvalued, reflecting a cautious outlook despite increased allocations [45]. On Sector Allocation - Investors increased their allocation to healthcare, telecom, and consumer discretionary sectors while reducing exposure to utilities and energy [172]. - The allocation to banks has reached a 7-month high, with a net 26% overweight position [175]. On Inflation and Interest Rates - 73% of investors believe AI will have a deflationary effect, while 49% expect higher inflation in the coming year [56][123]. - The divergence between expectations for short-term rates and inflation continues to widen, with only 6% expecting higher short-term rates [36][121].