油脂油料早报-20250917

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Abiove adjusted its forecasts for Brazil's 2024/25 soybean - related products, maintaining the soybean production and export volume forecasts, while increasing the forecasts for soybean crushing volume, bean - meal production, and soybean oil production [1]. - The NOPA monthly report showed that the U.S. soybean crushing volume in August decreased but was still higher than expected, and the soybean oil inventory at the end of August reached an eight - month low [1]. - Ukraine's rapeseed trade has been stagnant for two consecutive weeks due to export chaos, and there may be short - term price fluctuations [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Market Information - Brazil: Abiove kept the forecast of Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production at 170.3 million tons and the 2025 soybean export volume at 109.5 million tons. It raised the 2025 soybean crushing volume forecast to 58.5 million tons from 58.1 million tons, the 2024/25 bean - meal production forecast to 45.1 million tons from 44.8 million tons, and the 2024/25 soybean oil production forecast to 11.7 million tons from 11.65 million tons. The forecasts for 2024/25 bean - meal and soybean oil export volumes were unchanged at 23.6 million tons and 1.35 million tons respectively [1]. - USA: NOPA reported that U.S. member units crushed 189.81 million bushels of soybeans in August, 3.0% less than in July and 20.1% more than in August 2024. The average daily crushing volume was 6.123 million bushels, the lowest since last September. The soybean oil inventory at the end of August dropped to 1.245 billion pounds, 9.7% lower than at the end of July but 9.4% higher than the same period last year. The U.S. produced 4,512,904 short tons of bean - meal and 2.272749 billion pounds of soybean oil in August [1]. - Ukraine: Ukraine's rapeseed export has been blocked for two consecutive weeks due to disputes over customs documents after a 10% export tariff on rapeseed and soybeans. The Black Sea rapeseed CPT price dropped by $10 to $525 per ton last week. The rapeseed oil export volume from September 5 - 11 was 9,300 tons, down from 129,000 tons the previous week. Ukrainian agricultural enterprises may postpone rapeseed sales until November or December [1]. Spot Prices - The spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from September 10 - 16, 2025, showed certain fluctuations [4].