LPG早报-20250917

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core View of the Report - The LPG market is expected to remain weak overall. The cheapest delivery location is Shandong, where the supply is abundant due to incoming resources, while the chemical demand is declining [1]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Information Price and Basis - Domestic Prices: On September 17, 2025, the prices in East China were 4499 (-5), in Shandong were 4540 (+10), and in South China were 4550 (+10). The price of ether - post - carbon four was 4720 (-70). The lowest delivery location was East China [1]. - Basis and Spreads: The basis of the PG main contract weakened to 51 (-74). The 10 - 11 month spread was 49 (-20), and the 11 - 12 month spread was 62 (+3) [1]. - External Prices: FEI and CP were 561 (+3) and 552 (+2) dollars/ton respectively. The FEI month spread decreased slightly to -5, and the CP month spread decreased to -11. The external prices increased, with the FEI month spread +1, the MB month spread unchanged, and the CP month spread -2.5 [1]. - Internal - External Price Difference: The internal - external price difference decreased slightly. PG - CP was 75 (-3); PG - FEI was 67.6 (-9.3). FEI - CP was 7.5 (+6.5). The US - Asia arbitrage window was closed [1]. Inventory and Demand - Inventory: Port inventory and factory inventory both increased. Incoming shipments decreased, while outward shipments increased slightly, but demand narrowed [1]. - Demand: Chemical demand declined. The PDH operating rate was 70.49% (-2.61). The operating rates of alkylation and MTBE both decreased [1]. Profitability - Production Profits: The profit of PDH to produce PP continued to weaken, and the production gross margins of alkylated oil and MTBE were low [1]. Freight - Freight rates continued to rise. The latest freight from the US Gulf to Japan was 155 (+11), and from the Middle East to the Far East was 82 (+7) [1].