建信期货生猪日报-20250917

Report Information - Industry: Pig Futures [1] - Date: September 17, 2025 [2] Report Core View - The overall supply - demand situation of live pigs is loose, and the price is still weak. Although there is a slight increase in demand, the supply pressure is relatively greater. Futures are dragged down by the weak spot market and are mainly fluctuating weakly [7]. Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: On the 16th, the main 2511 contract of live pigs opened higher, fluctuated downward, and closed with a negative line. The highest price was 13,335 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,125 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13,160 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.30% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 8,212 lots to 217,535 lots [6]. - Spot Market: On the 16th, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 13.08 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.13 yuan/kg from the previous day [6]. - Supply - Side: In September, the planned sales volume of sample breeding enterprises was 25.7 million heads, an increase of 970,000 heads or 3.92% compared with the actual slaughter in August. The daily average increase was 7.39%. The slaughter volume may continue to increase significantly, and the utilization rate of the second - fattening pens remains high. The slaughter weight has declined slightly, and the slaughter volume before the Spring Festival may still show a slight increase in the long term [7]. - Demand - Side: The price difference between fat and standard pigs has slightly widened, and the fattening cost is still low. Currently, the second - fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state. After the demand increased due to the start of school, the continuous increment is not obvious. The market demand is mediocre, the sales of白条 are slow, and there is no obvious positive news. Only the external sales volume in a few low - price regions has increased, which supports a slight increase in the开工 rate of enterprises. The orders of slaughtering enterprises have slightly increased, and the slaughter rate and volume have slightly increased. On September 16th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 149,200 heads, an increase of 12,000 heads from the previous day, a decrease of 7,000 heads week - on - week, and an increase of 90,000 heads month - on - month [7]. 2. Data Overview - Breeding Profit: As of September 11th, the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising was 54 yuan/head, a decrease of 45 yuan/head week - on - week; the average profit per head of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 175.8 yuan/head, a decrease of 63 yuan/head week - on - week [12]. - Piglet Price: In the week of September 11th, the average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets was 394 yuan/head, a decrease of 32 yuan/head from the previous week [12]. - Price Difference: In the week of September 11th, the price difference between 150 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.13 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.06 yuan/jin week - on - week [12]. - Fattening Cost: The cost of fattening from 110 kg to 140 kg was 13.18 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.24 yuan/kg from the previous week; the cost of fattening from 125 kg to 150 kg was 13.52 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.17 yuan/kg from the previous week [12]. - Slaughtering Rate: In the week of September 11th, the slaughtering rate of enterprises was 31.40%, an increase of 0.13 percentage points from the previous week and 4.15 percentage points year - on - year. The weekly slaughtering rate fluctuated between 31.20% and 31.71% [12]. - Average Slaughter Weight: As of the week of September 11th, the average slaughter weight of live pigs nationwide was 128.32 kg, an increase of 0.09 kg or 0.07% month - on - month, and an increase of 2.36 kg or 1.84% year - on - year [12].