建信期货豆粕日报-20250917

Report Overview - Report Date: September 17, 2025 [2] - Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team, including Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Report Key Points 1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Domestic Futures Contracts: For domestic soybean meal futures contracts (2601, 2509, 2511), prices declined with varying degrees of decrease. For example, the closing price of the 2601 contract was 3041 yuan, down 10 yuan or 0.33% [6]. - External Market: The US soybean futures contract on the external market fluctuated, with the main contract at 1045 cents. The USDA's September monthly supply - demand report had a slight negative impact, but the market reaction was limited. The market is mainly focused on the China - US economic and trade consultations in Spain this week, which may involve US soybean import and export issues, providing some support to the external market [6]. - Domestic Supply: As the US soybean harvest approaches, China has not started purchasing US soybeans. With a 23% tariff on US soybean imports unchanged, Brazil will be the main source of imported soybeans in the fourth quarter, supplemented by some from Argentina. There may be a small import gap, which could be filled by state - reserve auctions. The China - US economic and trade consultations may change this supply logic [6]. - Market Outlook: In the short term, the market is likely to fluctuate at a low level due to heavy sentiment of long - position holders leaving the market. If no new news comes out of the consultations this week, futures may rebound, but the pressure on spot supply will persist in the short and medium term. In the long term, the import cost is expected to rise [6]. 2. Industry News - USDA Forecasts: The USDA's September forecast for the 2025/2026 US soybean production was 4.301 billion bushels, slightly higher than the market expectation of 4.271 billion bushels. The ending inventory was expected to be 300 million bushels, up from the previous 290 million bushels [6][9]. - USDA Crop Reports: As of the week ending September 14, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 63%, the same as expected. The harvest rate was 5%, and the defoliation rate was 41% [9]. - USDA Export Inspection Reports: As of the week ending September 11, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 804,352 tons, higher than the expected 200,000 - 730,000 tons. The export inspection volume to the Chinese mainland was 0 tons [10]. 3. Data Overview - Graphs: The report includes multiple graphs such as the spread between different soybean meal contracts (1 - 5, 5 - 9), the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the 01 contract, the central parity rate of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan, and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Brazilian real [13][15][16]