建信期货棉花日报-20250917

Report Information - Report Date: September 17, 2025 [2] - Industry: Cotton [1] - Researchers: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The cotton market is expected to experience short - term range - bound fluctuations. Macro factors such as Sino - US economic and trade talks and the upcoming Fed interest rate decision have strengthened short - term macro impacts. Overseas, the US cotton market shows a weakening trend with a decline in the weekly good - to - excellent rate, weaker weekly export data, and low net long positions of CFTC funds. In the domestic market, new cotton picking has started in some areas, and the demand side has a slight de - stocking of finished products, with seasonal recovery in the downstream weaving mills' operation rate and some rigid demand support [7][8]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Performance: Zhengzhou cotton is in a volatile adjustment. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index is 15,300 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The cotton yarn market has average trading, weaker than the same period in previous years, with stable prices and some local discounts. The cotton fabric market has weak demand, and the home textile market has increased sales but poor order continuity and difficult price increases [7]. - Macro and Overseas Factors: Sino - US economic and trade talks are held in Spain, and the Fed will announce its interest rate decision this week. The US cotton weekly good - to - excellent rate has decreased slightly, export data has weakened, and the CFTC fund net long position remains low, leading to a weakening trend in the overseas market [8]. - Domestic Market: Some domestic regions have started manual cotton picking, and mechanical picking will start next week. As of September 11, the national new cotton picking progress is 0.3%, 0.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year and 0.1 percentage points lower than the average of the past four years. The demand side has a slight de - stocking of finished products, and the downstream weaving mills' operation rate has a seasonal increase, with rigid demand support [8]. 3.2 Industry News - As of the week ending September 14, the US cotton boll opening rate is 50% (compared to 53% last year and a five - year average of 49%), the picking rate is 9% (compared to 10% last year and a five - year average of 8%), and the good - to - excellent rate is 52% (compared to 39% last year) [9]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including the China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, various cotton futures spreads, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, and the total number of warehouse receipts, as well as currency exchange rate data such as the US dollar against the Chinese yuan and the US dollar against the Indian rupee [16][17][20][26][28]