建信期货油脂日报-20250917

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Oils and fats [1] - Report date: September 17, 2025 [2] - Research analysts: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions Market Review | Contract | Previous Settlement Price | Opening Price | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Volume | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | P2605 | 9132 | 9190 | 9278 | 9186 | 9252 | 120 | 31% | 27698 | 83089 | 1606 | | P2601 | 9370 | 9442 | 9528 | 9430 | 9482 | 112 | 1.20% | 591669 | 451732 | 18379 | | Y2605 | 8056 | 8060 | 8152 | 8090 | 8122 | 66 | 0.82% | 44087 | 226828 | 4786 | | Y2601 | 8356 | 8398 | 8448 | 8384 | 8418 | 62 | 0.74% | 297563 | 597762 | 1330 | | O1605 | 9517 | 9517 | 9604 | 9472 | 9586 | 69 | 0.73% | 23590 | 41526 | 2856 | | Ol601 | 9877 | 9918 | 10063 | 9900 | 10053 | 176 | 1.78% | 350650 | 333040 | 51403 | [7] - East China's third - grade rapeseed oil basis prices: September - October: OI2601 + 220; November - December: OI2601 + 230. First - grade rapeseed oil: September: OI2601 + 310; October: OI2601 + 330. First - grade soybean oil basis prices in East China market: Spot: Y2601 + 150; October: Y2601 + 160; October - January: Y2601 + 190; February - May: Y2601 + 130; April - July: Y2605 + 200. East China's 24 - degree palm oil liquid oil distribution quotes: September basis P2601 - 50; October basis P2601 + 0; October - November basis P2601 + 50 [7] Core Viewpoints - Macro aspect: The press conference of the China's Ministry of Commerce on international trade negotiations did not mention specific issues regarding Sino - US agriculture, causing market concerns about future supply. The three major oils increased in positions and prices, especially the rapeseed oil main contract OI601, which increased positions by more than 50,000 lots and broke through the 10,000 - point mark, reaching a one - month high. Near - term rapeseed oil continued the de - stocking trend, with relatively concentrated supply sources. Traders mainly pushed up prices for sales, and the basis quotes continued to rise. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - Canadian trade and the supply of rapeseed raw materials. The Malaysian market was closed on Tuesday, and the Dalian palm oil fluctuated strongly. The domestic spot market was relatively quiet, mainly trading on origin information. Due to the high soybean crushing volume of oil mills, domestic soybean oil continued to accumulate inventory, with high inventory levels and abundant supply. However, the market was worried about the long - term soybean supply, and the cost side provided strong support, so soybean oil lacked room to decline. It is recommended to mainly buy low and go long on the three major oils [8] Group 3: Industry News - Malaysia's palm oil exports to China were 0.83 tons, a decrease of 0.57 tons compared to last week's 1.4 tons [10] - According to data from the Southern Palm Oil Manufacturers' Association of Malaysia (SPPOMA), from September 1 - 10, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 3.17% month - on - month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield per unit area decreasing by 2.7% month - on - month and the oil extraction rate (OER) decreasing by 0.09% month - on - month. Shipping survey agency ITS data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 10 were 476,610 tons, a 1.2% decrease compared to the 482,576 tons exported from August 1 - 10. Exports to China were 0.8 tons, higher than the 0.1 tons in the same period last month. Shipping survey agency SGS data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 10 were 244,940 tons, a 27.8% decrease compared to the 339,143 tons exported from August 1 - 10 [11] Group 4: Data Overview - Figures include East China's third - grade rapeseed oil spot price, East China's fourth - grade soybean oil spot price, South China's 24 - degree palm oil spot price, palm oil basis change, soybean oil basis change, rapeseed oil basis change, P1 - 5 spread, P5 - 9 spread, P9 - 1 spread, US dollar to Malaysian ringgit exchange rate, US dollar to RMB exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [13][15][23][28][29]