Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Chlor - Alkali Industry - The caustic soda futures market is stabilizing, with overall commodity sentiment positive. Supply may decline due to planned maintenance, and demand from the alumina industry is weakening, while non - alumina demand is improving but with limited price support. Spot prices may stabilize, and the downside of futures prices is limited [27]. - The PVC futures market is rebounding, driven by macro - sentiment. Supply is expected to decrease due to more maintenance this week, and demand from downstream products is slightly increasing. The cost side is providing bottom support, and it is expected to stop falling in the peak season from September to October [27]. Polyester Industry Chain - For PX, supply is increasing to a relatively high level, and short - term demand has some support, but the upside is limited. It is expected to fluctuate between 6600 - 6900 in the short term [30]. - PTA's spot market liquidity is good, and the medium - term supply - demand is weak. It is expected to fluctuate between 4600 - 4800 in the short term, and TA1 - 5 should be rolled in a reverse spread [30]. - Ethylene glycol's supply - demand pattern is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term. It is expected to reduce inventory in September but increase inventory in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to wait and see on the single - side and use EG1 - 5 reverse spread [30]. - Short - fiber's short - term supply - demand is weak, and it mainly follows raw material fluctuations. The single - side strategy is the same as PTA, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 800 - 1100 [30]. - Bottle - chip's supply increases slightly, and demand may decline. It mainly follows cost fluctuations, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 500 yuan/ton [30]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - Pure benzene's supply is at a relatively high level, and demand is weak. It is expected to be supported by the strong oil price and good macro - atmosphere, and BZ2603 should follow styrene to fluctuate strongly [35]. - Styrene's price is strongly supported but the upside is limited by high port inventory. EB10 should be bought at low prices, and the EB11 - BZ11 spread should be widened at low levels [35]. Urea Industry - Urea futures have rebounded in the past two days, driven by supply - side maintenance expectations. Demand is mainly supported by export and industrial needs, and the futures increase is mainly due to short - covering and expectation differences [39][40]. Methanol Industry - Methanol's supply in the inland is at a high level, and demand is weak due to the traditional off - season. The inventory pattern is relatively healthy, and the overall valuation is neutral. The market is swinging between high - inventory reality and overseas gas - restriction expectations, and the inventory inflection point should be monitored [42]. LLDPE - PP Industry - PP's PDH and propylene - purchasing profits are suppressed, with more unplanned maintenance and falling inventory, but the basis is still weak. PE's maintenance is at a relatively high level, with short - term low supply pressure, rising basis, and inventory reduction. Demand for new orders is poor, and the market is in a state of "decreasing supply and increasing demand" [45]. Crude Oil Industry - Overnight oil prices rose due to geopolitical conflicts, which increased concerns about supply disruptions of Russian refined oil and crude oil. The market's focus has shifted to immediate supply risks, and the oil price is likely to run along the upper edge of the shock range in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see on the single - side, and look for opportunities to widen spreads on the options side after volatility increases [48] Summary by Directory Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC, Caustic Soda Spot & Futures: On September 16, Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda's price decreased by 3.0%, and Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda's price decreased by 4.4%. The prices of East - China PVC increased, and the prices of related futures contracts also changed slightly [27]. - Supply: The overall PVC start - up rate increased by 4.2% to 79.4%, while the profit of externally - purchased calcium carbide PVC decreased by 12.8% [27]. - Demand: The start - up rates of alumina, viscose staple fiber, and printing and dyeing industries all increased slightly, and the start - up rates of downstream PVC products also increased [27]. - Inventory: The inventory of liquid caustic soda in Shandong increased by 17.0%, and the total social inventory of PVC decreased slightly by 0.3% [27]. Polyester Industry Chain - Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows: On September 16, the prices of most downstream polyester products increased slightly, and the cash flows of some products changed [30]. - PX - Related Prices and Spreads: CFR China PX price decreased by 0.2%, and PX - naphtha spread increased by 0.9% [30]. - PTA - Related Prices and Spreads: PTA's spot price increased by 0.2%, and the processing fee of PTA's spot increased by 19.6% [30]. - MEG - Related Prices and Spreads: MEG's spot price increased by 0.2%, and the basis of EG01 increased [30]. - Polyester Industry Chain Start - up Rate Changes: The start - up rates of Asian PX, Chinese PX, and PTA all increased, while the start - up rate of pure - polyester yarn decreased [30]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - Upstream Prices and Spreads: On September 16, the prices of Brent and WTI crude oil increased, and the price of CFR China pure benzene increased by 0.3% [35]. - Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads: The price of styrene's East - China spot increased by 0.8%, and the cash flows of non - integrated and integrated styrene improved [35]. - Pure Benzene and Styrene Downstream Cash Flows: The cash flows of some downstream products of pure benzene and styrene changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [35]. - Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventory: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports decreased [35]. - Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry Chain Start - up Rate Changes: The start - up rates of some products in the pure benzene and styrene industry chain decreased, while the start - up rates of downstream PS and EPS increased [35]. Urea Industry - Futures Closing Prices: On September 16, the prices of urea futures contracts increased slightly, and the price of methanol futures decreased [39]. - Upstream Raw Materials: The prices of most upstream raw materials of urea remained stable, and the estimated production costs of fixed - bed and water - coal - slurry remained unchanged [40]. - Spot Market Prices: The prices of urea in different regions changed slightly, with some increasing and some decreasing [40]. - Supply - Demand Overview: The daily and weekly production of domestic urea increased slightly, and the factory inventory increased by 3.44%, while the port inventory decreased by 11.52% [40]. Methanol Industry - Methanol Prices and Spreads: On September 16, the prices of methanol futures contracts decreased, and the basis and regional spreads changed [42]. - Methanol Inventory: The enterprise, port, and social inventories of methanol increased [42]. - Methanol Upstream - Downstream Start - up Rates: The start - up rates of upstream domestic enterprises and overseas exchanges decreased, while the start - up rates of some downstream products increased [42]. LLDPE - PP Industry - Product Prices and Spreads: On September 16, the prices of LLDPE and PP futures contracts increased slightly, and the spreads between different contracts and the basis changed [45]. - Inventory: The enterprise and social inventories of PE and PP increased [45]. - Upstream - Downstream Start - up Rates: The start - up rates of PE and PP devices decreased, while the start - up rates of some downstream products increased [45]. Crude Oil Industry - Crude Oil Prices and Spreads: On September 17, the prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil increased, and the spreads between different contracts and different types of crude oil changed [48]. - Refined Oil Prices and Spreads: The prices of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil increased, and the spreads between different contracts of refined oil changed [48]. - Refined Oil Crack Spreads: The crack spreads of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in different regions changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [48].
《能源化工》日报-20250917
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-09-17 02:01