沪镍、不锈钢早报-20250917

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - 沪镍: With an expected interest rate cut, it is expected to fluctuate and strengthen. The long - term oversupply situation remains unchanged, but in the short - term, there are factors such as high - level shock in the external market, a firm nickel ore price due to Indonesia's sudden mine inspection, a steady increase in ferronickel price, and a decline in stainless steel inventory. [2] - 不锈钢: It is expected to operate in a wide - range fluctuation. The short - term situation is neutral to positive, with a firm nickel ore price, a steady increase in ferronickel price, and a continuous decline in stainless steel inventory. [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview - Futures Prices: On September 16, the closing price of the main contract of Shanghai nickel was 122,610 yuan, up 30 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of LME nickel was 15,445 yuan, up 20 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of stainless steel was 12,970 yuan, down 100 yuan. [11] - Spot Prices: On September 16, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 123,600 yuan, up 600 yuan; the price of 1 Jinchuan nickel was 124,700 yuan, up 550 yuan; the price of 1 imported nickel was 122,800 yuan, up 650 yuan; the price of nickel beans was 124,950 yuan, up 650 yuan. The prices of cold - rolled coils in Wuxi, Foshan, Hangzhou, and Shanghai remained unchanged. [11] 3.2 Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - As of September 12: The Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 27,500 tons, of which the futures inventory was 23,529 tons, an increase of 514 tons and 1,815 tons respectively. [13] - On September 16: LME nickel inventory was 226,434 tons, an increase of 1,950 tons; Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 26,167 tons, an increase of 1,208 tons; the total inventory was 252,601 tons, an increase of 3,158 tons. [14] 3.3 Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - As of September 12: The inventory in Wuxi was 583,700 tons, the inventory in Foshan was 297,100 tons, and the national inventory was 1,012,500 tons, a decrease of 41,100 tons compared with the previous period. Among them, the inventory of the 300 - series was 623,700 tons, a decrease of 17,200 tons. [18] - On September 16: The stainless steel warehouse receipts were 95,745 tons, a decrease of 604 tons compared with the previous day. [19] 3.4 Nickel Ore and Ferronickel Prices - Nickel Ore Prices: On September 16, the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF with a Ni content of 1.5% was 57 US dollars per wet ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF with a Ni content of 0.9% was 29 US dollars per wet ton, unchanged. The sea freight from the Philippines to Lianyungang and Tianjin Port remained unchanged. [22] - Ferronickel Prices: The price of high - nickel ferronickel (8 - 12) was 954 yuan per nickel point, and the price of low - nickel ferronickel (below 2) was 3,470 yuan per ton, both unchanged from the previous day. [22] 3.5 Stainless Steel Production Costs - The traditional production cost was 13,160 yuan, the production cost using scrap steel was 13,565 yuan, and the production cost using low - nickel and pure nickel was 16,907 yuan. [24] 3.6 Nickel Import Cost Calculation The converted import price was 124,377 yuan per ton. [26] 3.7 Factors Affecting Supply and Demand - Positive Factors: The demand boost expectation during the "Golden September and Silver October" period, anti - involution policies, and a cost support line at 120,000 yuan. [6] - Negative Factors: A significant year - on - year increase in domestic production, no new demand growth points, a long - term oversupply situation, and a year - on - year decline in the loading volume of ternary batteries. [6]