甲醇聚烯烃早报-20250917

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Views - Methanol: The trading logic is that port pressure is transmitted to the inland. The inland has seasonal stocking demand and new device stocking increment from Lianhong, but the port will continuously cause reverse flow impact. The current price is benchmarked against inland prices, and the inland's actions are crucial. Xingxing is expected to start operation in early September, but inventory is still accumulating. Reverse flow can relieve port pressure but will affect inland valuation. Currently, the valuation and inventory are average, and the driving force is weak. It's necessary to wait before bottom - fishing, considering import variables such as India's purchase of Iranian products and unplanned maintenance [2]. - Plastic (Polyethylene): The inventory of major producers is neutral year - on - year. Upstream major producers and coal - chemical enterprises are reducing inventory, social inventory is flat, and downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are also neutral. The overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. The overseas markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. The import profit is around - 200 with no further increase for now. The non - standard HD injection price is stable, other price differences are oscillating, and LD is weakening. The maintenance in September is flat compared to the previous month, and the domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and US quotes, as well as the new device commissioning in 2025 [3]. - PP (Polypropylene): The upstream major producers and mid - stream are reducing inventory. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, non - standard price differences are neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been good this year. Non - standard price differences are neutral, and the overseas markets in Europe and America are stable. The PDH profit is around - 400, propylene is oscillating, and powder production start - up is stable. The拉丝 production scheduling is neutral. The subsequent supply is expected to increase slightly, downstream orders are average currently, and raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the pressure on the 01 contract is moderately excessive. If exports continue to increase or there are many PDH device maintenance, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [3]. - PVC: The basis is maintained at 01 - 270, and the factory - pickup basis is - 480. Downstream start - up is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. The inventory of mid - upstream is continuously accumulating. The summer seasonal maintenance of northwest devices has a load center between the spring maintenance and the high production in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the commissioning and export sustainability. The recent near - end export orders have slightly declined. The coal sentiment is positive, the cost of semi - coke is stable, and the profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC maintenance. The FOB counter - offer for caustic soda export is 380. The PVC comprehensive profit is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, the cost is stable, downstream performance is average, and the macro situation is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and start - up [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Methanol - Price Data: From September 1 to September 6, 2025, the daily change of动力煤期货 is 0, the江苏现货 decreased by 3, the华南现货 decreased by 2, the鲁南折盘面 remained unchanged, the西南折盘面 increased by 35, the河北折盘面 increased by 5, the西北折盘面 increased by 22, the CFR中国 and CFR东南亚 remained unchanged, the进口利润 remained unchanged, the主力基差 decreased by 5, and the盘面MTO利润 increased by 67 [2]. Plastic (Polyethylene) - Price Data: From September 1 to September 6, 2025, the东北亚乙烯 remained unchanged, the华北LL remained unchanged, the华东LL increased by 50, the华东LD increased by 25, the华东HD remained unchanged, the LL美金 and LL美湾 remained unchanged, the进口利润 increased by 2, the主力期货 decreased by 10, the基差 remained unchanged, the两油库存 remained unchanged, and the仓单 remained unchanged [3]. PP (Polypropylene) - Price Data: From September 10 to September 16, 2025, the山东丙烯 decreased by 50, the东北亚丙烯 remained unchanged, the华东PP increased by 25, the华北PP increased by 5, the山东粉料 remained unchanged, the华东共聚 remained unchanged, the PP美金 and PP美湾 remained unchanged, the出口利润 remained unchanged, the主力期货 increased by 4, the基差 decreased by 20, the两油库存 remained unchanged, and the仓单 remained unchanged [3]. PVC - Price Data: From September 10 to September 16, 2025, the西北电石 increased by 50, the山东烧碱 decreased by 20, the电石法 - 华东 increased by 50, the乙烯法 - 华东 remained unchanged, the电石法 - 华南 remained unchanged, the电石法 - 西北 remained unchanged, the进口美金价 (CFR中国) remained unchanged, the出口利润 remained unchanged, the西北综合利润 remained unchanged, the华北综合利润 remained unchanged, and the基差 (高端交割品) remained unchanged [3].