大越期货玻璃早报-20250917

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The glass fundamentals are weak, and it is expected to mainly move in a sideways manner in the short term. The supply of glass has declined to a relatively low level compared to the same period, but the terminal demand is sluggish, and the inventory has rebounded. It is expected that the glass will mainly move weakly in a sideways manner [2][5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - Fundamentals: Glass production profit has declined, the industry is at a high level of cold repair, and the start - up rate and output have dropped to historical lows in the same period. Downstream deep - processing orders are generally weak, worse than the same period in previous years, and the real - estate terminal demand is weak [2]. - Basis: The spot price of float glass in Hebei Shahe is 1080 yuan/ton, the closing price of FG2601 is 1237 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 157 yuan, with the futures at a premium to the spot [2]. - Inventory: The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 61.583 billion weight boxes, a decrease of 2.33% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [2]. - Disk: The price is running above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward [2]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing [2]. - Expectation: The glass fundamentals are weak, and it is expected to mainly move in a sideways manner in the short term [2]. 3.2 Influence Factor Summary - Bullish Factors: Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, there is an expectation of capacity clearance in the float glass industry [3]. - Bearish Factors: The real - estate terminal demand is still weak, and the number of orders of glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low in the same period; the capital collection of the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly digesting the original sheet inventory; the market sentiment of "anti - involution" has subsided [4]. 3.3 Main Logic The supply of glass has declined to a relatively low level in the same period, but the terminal demand is sluggish, and the inventory has rebounded. It is expected that the glass will mainly move weakly in a sideways manner [5]. 3.4 Glass Futures Market | Market | Main Contract Closing Price | Shahe Safety Large Plate Spot Price | Main Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1207 yuan/ton | 1072 yuan/ton | - 135 yuan/ton | | Current Value | 1237 yuan/ton | 1080 yuan/ton | - 157 yuan/ton | | Change Rate | 2.49% | 0.75% | 16.30% | [6] 3.5 Glass Spot Market The market price of 5mm white glass large plates in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe is 1080 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Cost Side: Glass production profit has declined [2]. - Supply: The number of national float glass production lines in operation is 225, with a start - up rate of 76.01%. The number of glass production lines in operation is at a historical low in the same period. The daily melting volume of national float glass is 160,200 tons, and the production capacity is at the lowest level in the same period in history and has stabilized and rebounded [22][24]. - Demand: In June 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.634 million tons [28]. - Inventory: The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 61.583 billion weight boxes, a decrease of 2.33% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [2][42]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: Shows the supply - demand balance data of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, including production, consumption, and other indicators [43].