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大越期货白糖早报-20250917
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-09-17 02:20
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The ISO predicts a global sugar supply deficit of 231,000 tons in the 25/26 season, a significant reduction from the previous forecast. Conab estimates Brazil's central - southern sugar production in the 25/26 season to be 40.6 million tons, a 3.1% decrease from the previous estimate. As of the end of August 2025, China's cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 11.1621 million tons, with cumulative sales of 10 million tons and a sales rate of 89.6%. In July 2025, China imported 740,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 320,000 tons, and the total import of syrup and premixes was 159,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 68,500 tons [4]. - The basis in Liuzhou is 423 (for the 01 contract), indicating a premium over futures. As of the end of August, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 season was 1.16 million tons. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below it. The main position is bearish, with a reduction in net short positions, and the main trend is unclear. International raw sugar is currently fluctuating around 16.5 cents. The domestic consumption peak season is approaching its end, and sugar imports have increased significantly. The main 01 contract of Zhengzhou sugar futures has a weak rebound and is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5,500 - 5,600 in the short term [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - Fundamentals: The ISO forecasts a 231,000 - ton global sugar supply deficit in the 25/26 season, a sharp reduction from the previous prediction. Conab estimates Brazil's central - southern sugar production in the 25/26 season to be 40.6 million tons, down 3.1% from the previous estimate. As of the end of August 2025, China's cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 11.1621 million tons, cumulative sales were 10 million tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. In July 2025, China imported 740,000 tons of sugar, up 320,000 tons year - on - year, and the total import of syrup and premixes was 159,800 tons, down 68,500 tons year - on - year. Overall, it is neutral [4]. - Basis: The Liuzhou spot price is 5,970, and the basis is 423 (for the 01 contract), indicating a premium over futures, which is bullish [4]. - Inventory: As of the end of August, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 season was 1.16 million tons, which is bullish [4]. - Market Chart: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below it, which is bearish [4]. - Main Position: The position is bearish, with a reduction in net short positions, and the main trend is unclear, which is bearish [4]. - Expectation: International raw sugar is currently fluctuating around 16.5 cents. The domestic consumption peak season is about to end, and sugar imports have increased significantly. The main 01 contract of Zhengzhou sugar futures has a weak rebound and is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5,500 - 5,600 in the short term [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Global Supply and Demand Forecasts: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar market. The ISO predicts a 231,000 - ton deficit; Czarnikow predicts a 7.5 - million - ton surplus; Dataro predicts a 1.53 - million - ton surplus; StoneX predicts a 3.04 - million - ton surplus after a downward adjustment; Green Pool estimates a 5.3% increase in global sugar production to 199.1 million tons in the 25/26 season; and the USDA expects a 4.7% year - on - year increase in global sugar production and a 1.4% increase in consumption, resulting in a 11.397 - million - ton surplus [4][8]. - Domestic Supply and Demand: In 2025, China's sugar production, sales, and import data show that as of the end of August, the cumulative production in the 24/25 season was 11.1621 million tons, cumulative sales were 10 million tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. In July, 740,000 tons of sugar were imported, a year - on - year increase of 320,000 tons, and the total import of syrup and premixes was 159,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 68,500 tons [4]. - Sugar Price and Market Conditions: The international raw sugar price is currently around 16.5 cents. The domestic sugar spot sales average price is around 6,000. The main 01 contract of Zhengzhou sugar futures has a weak rebound and is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5,500 - 5,600 in the short term [4]. 3.5 Position Data No relevant content provided.